Redwoods레드우즈
266170 · KONEX · ₩266170 · 레드우즈
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩956,479
- Equity value
- −₩16B
- WACC
- 4.9%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-100% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-100% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-100% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-100% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-100% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 14.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 18.4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 1.97
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 2.45, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (FY 2025)
- ₩215,008
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩16B
- Shares
- 1,301,040
- Share price
- ₩1,050
- Market cap
- ₩1.4B
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩837M | ₩215,008 | ₩193,507 | ₩180,542 | ₩174,223 | ₩173,875 | ₩179,091 |
| Growth | — | −100.0% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩1.9B | −₩756M | −₩38,701 | −₩36,108 | −₩34,845 | −₩34,775 | −₩35,818 |
| EBIT margin | −232.0% | −351,636.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩1.4B | −₩548M | −₩28,059 | −₩26,179 | −₩25,262 | −₩25,212 | −₩25,968 |
| + Depreciation | — | — | ₩28,446 | ₩26,540 | ₩25,611 | ₩25,560 | ₩26,326 |
| − Capital spending | ₩308M | ₩0 | ₩35,605 | ₩33,220 | ₩32,057 | ₩31,993 | ₩32,953 |
| − Working capital | — | ₩20B | −₩8,600 | −₩5,186 | −₩2,528 | −₩139 | ₩2,086 |
| Free cash flow | — | — | −₩26,618 | −₩27,673 | −₩29,181 | −₩31,506 | −₩34,681 |
| Discount factor | — | — | 0.953 | 0.909 | 0.866 | 0.825 | 0.787 |
| Present value | — | — | −₩25,371 | −₩25,142 | −₩25,270 | −₩26,006 | −₩27,286 |
Terminal value −₩1.1M, worth −₩827,403 today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.4B
- Enterprise value
- ₩18B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 8.6×
- P/S
- 6,353.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,420 | ₩6,960 |
| Market cap | ₩4.4B | ₩9.1B |
| P/E | — | — |
| P/B | 27.9× | — |
| P/S | 20,694.8× | 10.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redwoods | — | 8.6× | 6,353.7× | — | 0.0% |
| HYBE | — | 2.1× | 2.0× | — | 0.3% |
| SM Entertainment | 13.8× | 1.8× | 1.4× | — | 2.0% |
| JYP Entertainment | 12.6× | 2.1× | 1.6× | 7.0× | 2.3% |
| CJ CGV | — | 1.1× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| YG Entertainment | 21.9× | 1.4× | 1.2× | — | 0.8% |
| Studio Dragon | 21.7× | 0.9× | 1.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.8× | 1.6× | 1.3× | 7.0× | 0.5% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Redwoods / 레드우즈 / 266170 / KRX:266170
Source: KRX statistical information