HD Hyundai ElectricHD현대일렉트릭
267260 · KOSPI · ₩267260 · HD현대일렉트릭
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩315,226
vs the current price (₩462,500)
- Enterprise value
- ₩11T
- Equity value
- ₩11T
- WACC
- 9.1%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩217,868
- −52.9%
- Base
- ₩315,226
- −31.8%
- Bull
- ₩462,666
- 0.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (15.6%).
Revenue growth
- 24.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 13.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 15.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 4.4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 12.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.91
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.87, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩4.3T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩806B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩6.1B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩3.3B
- Shares
- 36,047,135
- Share price
- ₩462,500
- Market cap
- ₩17T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩2.7T | ₩3.3T | ₩4.1T | ₩5.4T | ₩6.5T | ₩7.3T | ₩8T | ₩8.2T |
| Growth | 28.4% | 22.9% | 22.8% | 24.7% | 19.3% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩315B | ₩669B | ₩995B | ₩844B | ₩1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T |
| EBIT margin | 11.7% | 20.1% | 24.4% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩229B | ₩485B | ₩722B | ₩612B | ₩730B | ₩830B | ₩900B | ₩927B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩195B | ₩232B | ₩264B | ₩287B | ₩295B |
| − Capital spending | ₩89B | ₩137B | ₩242B | ₩238B | ₩284B | ₩323B | ₩350B | ₩361B |
| − Working capital | ₩344B | −₩421B | −₩254B | ₩138B | ₩135B | ₩115B | ₩80B | ₩31B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩430B | ₩543B | ₩657B | ₩757B | ₩831B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.916 | 0.840 | 0.770 | 0.705 | 0.647 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩394B | ₩456B | ₩506B | ₩534B | ₩537B |
Terminal value ₩13T, worth ₩8.1T today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩62,557 a share)Now 7.39× | ₩76,2451.22× | ₩438,4487.01× | ₩982,63815.7× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩23,602 a share)Now 19.6× | ₩280,01711.9× | ₩682,45628.9× | ₩1,068,91745.3× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩20,340 a share)Now 22.7× | ₩241,31711.9× | ₩588,13628.9× | ₩921,18645.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | ₩328,341 | ₩345,963 | ₩366,453 | ₩390,575 | ₩419,395 |
| 8.6% | ₩306,757 | ₩321,700 | ₩338,888 | ₩358,872 | ₩382,399 |
| 9.1% | ₩287,861 | ₩300,651 | ₩315,226 | ₩331,991 | ₩351,483 |
| 9.6% | ₩271,184 | ₩282,222 | ₩294,697 | ₩308,914 | ₩325,266 |
| 10.1% | ₩256,359 | ₩265,954 | ₩276,721 | ₩288,891 | ₩302,758 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩17T
- Enterprise value
- ₩16T
- P/E
- 19.6×
- P/B
- 7.4×
- P/S
- 3.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩774,000 | ₩382,000 | ₩82,200 | ₩42,500 | ₩19,900 |
| Market cap | ₩28T | ₩14T | ₩3T | ₩1.5T | ₩717B |
| P/E | 38.1× | 27.5× | 11.4× | 9.4× | — |
| P/B | 13.8× | 9.2× | 2.8× | 1.9× | 1.1× |
| P/S | 6.8× | 4.1× | 1.1× | 0.7× | 0.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD Hyundai Electric | 19.6× | 7.4× | 3.8× | — | 0.0% |
| LS Electric | 63.5× | 11.6× | 4.3× | 39.3× | 0.0% |
| Hyosung Heavy Industries | 31.8× | 7.2× | 2.9× | — | 0.4% |
| Gaon Cable | 117.0× | 14.2× | 2.6× | 61.1× | 0.0% |
| Sanil Electric | 27.9× | 7.6× | 8.5× | — | 0.8% |
| Taihan Cable & Solution | — | 2.3× | 1.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Iljin Electric | 20.0× | 4.3× | 1.3× | — | 0.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 31.8× | 7.4× | 2.8× | 50.2× | 0.2% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HD Hyundai Electric / HD현대일렉트릭 / 267260 / KRX:267260
Source: KRX statistical information