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Miwon Specialty Chemical

268280 · KOSPI · ₩268280 · 미원에스씨

₩128,600 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩176,979

vs the current price (₩128,600)

Enterprise value
₩785B
Equity value
₩885B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 38% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩128,600, the model needs an operating margin of 9.4% every year (it uses 13.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −10.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from 5.1% to 17.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 7.8× against a typical 12.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩120,963
−5.9%
Base
₩176,979
+37.6%
Bull
₩272,230
+111.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -4.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 13%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 33.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩564B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩100B
Shares
5,000,000
Share price
₩128,600
Market cap
₩643B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩438B₩509B₩532B₩538B₩524B₩519B₩525B₩541B
Growth−28.4%16.4%4.5%−4.5%−2.7%−0.8%1.1%3.0%
EBIT₩23B₩59B₩65B₩70B₩68B₩68B₩68B₩70B
EBIT margin5.1%11.5%12.3%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%
After-tax EBIT₩16B₩43B₩47B₩51B₩49B₩49B₩49B₩51B
+ Depreciation₩28B₩27B₩26B₩30B₩29B₩29B₩29B₩30B
− Capital spending₩25B₩20B₩45B₩32B₩31B₩31B₩32B₩32B
− Working capital−₩62B₩26B₩8B−₩8.6B−₩4.9B−₩1.4B₩1.9B₩5.3B
Free cash flow₩82B₩23B₩20B₩57B₩52B₩48B₩45B₩43B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩53B₩45B₩39B₩34B₩30B

Terminal value ₩837B, worth ₩585B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩98,598 a share)Now 1.30×₩134,6521.37×₩181,3791.84×₩299,7013.04×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩16,475 a share)Now 7.81×₩140,8728.55×₩211,85312.9×₩474,46928.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩9,165 a share)Now 14.0×₩78,3688.55×₩117,85612.9×₩263,95228.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩187,420₩198,219₩211,438₩228,006₩249,395
6.9%₩173,515₩182,123₩192,457₩205,107₩220,959
7.4%₩161,779₩168,747₩176,979₩186,863₩198,961
7.9%₩151,739₩157,454₩164,115₩171,984₩181,432
8.4%₩143,052₩147,792₩153,252₩159,615₩167,133

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩643B
Enterprise value
₩543B
P/E
7.8×
P/B
1.3×
P/S
1.1×
EV/EBITDA
5.0×
Dividend yield
2.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩140,300₩149,600₩137,400₩154,000₩218,500
Market cap₩702B₩748B₩687B₩770B₩1.1T
P/E11.4×13.7×36.9×11.9×13.7×
P/B1.6×1.8×1.8×2.0×3.3×
P/S1.3×1.5×1.6×1.3×2.1×
EV/EBITDA6.6×7.8×12.2×7.6×9.5×
Dividend yield2.3%1.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Miwon Specialty Chemical7.8×1.3×1.1×5.0×2.5%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.6×0.4×—0.0%
Hanwha6.2×0.4×0.1×—1.4%
SKC—2.1×2.0×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.7×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.2×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.2×0.4×0.4×8.7×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Miwon Specialty Chemical / 미원에스씨 / 268280 / KRX:268280

Source: KRX statistical information