Aptn앱튼
270520 · KOSDAQ · ₩270520 · 앱튼
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩54B
- Equity value
- −₩119B
- WACC
- 7.1%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩620, the model needs an operating margin of 48.3% every year (it uses −20.0%).
- Margins ranged from −69.4% to −4.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
- The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- -1.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 30.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 38.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -3.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 2
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 4.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩15B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩65B
- Shares
- 40,026,914
- Share price
- ₩620
- Market cap
- ₩25B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩20B | ₩18B | ₩17B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩16B |
| Growth | 16.2% | −10.0% | −8.1% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩6.5B | −₩13B | −₩11B | −₩3B | −₩3B | −₩3.1B | −₩3.1B | −₩3.2B |
| EBIT margin | −32.1% | −69.4% | −66.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩4.7B | −₩9.2B | −₩8.1B | −₩2.2B | −₩2.2B | −₩2.2B | −₩2.3B | −₩2.3B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩4.7B | ₩4.6B | ₩4.7B | ₩4.8B | ₩4.9B |
| − Capital spending | ₩4.1B | ₩511M | ₩16B | ₩5.8B | ₩5.8B | ₩5.9B | ₩6B | ₩6.2B |
| − Working capital | −₩8.6B | −₩17B | ₩38B | ₩6.6M | ₩1M | −₩4.5M | −₩9.6M | −₩15M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩3.4B | −₩3.4B | −₩3.4B | −₩3.5B | −₩3.6B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.934 | 0.872 | 0.814 | 0.760 | 0.709 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩3.2B | −₩2.9B | −₩2.8B | −₩2.6B | −₩2.5B |
Terminal value −₩56B, worth −₩40B today: 74% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩1,971 a share)Now 0.31× | ₩2,0761.05× | ₩19,4859.88× | ₩39,22419.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩25B
- Enterprise value
- ₩90B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 1.6×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,470 | ₩14,049 | ₩21,849 | ₩11,857 | ₩9,122 |
| Market cap | ₩139B | ₩562B | ₩875B | ₩475B | ₩365B |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 1.5× | 6.9× | 15.0× | 11.2× | 12.5× |
| P/S | 8.2× | 30.6× | 42.8× | 27.0× | 14.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptn | — | 0.3× | 1.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung E&A | 18.4× | 2.4× | 1.3× | — | 1.3% |
| HD Hyundai Marine Solution | 23.7× | 8.9× | 3.6× | — | 2.2% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction | 97.3× | 5.9× | 6.5× | 48.4× | 1.5% |
| POSCO DX | 90.5× | 5.1× | 3.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanyang ENG | 7.4× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 3.6× | 0.0% |
| SemiFive | — | 2.1× | 3.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 23.7× | 3.8× | 3.3× | 26.0× | 0.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Aptn / 앱튼 / 270520 / KRX:270520
Source: KRX statistical information