Ask Warren

Iljin Hysolus

271940 · KOSPI · ₩271940 · 일진하이솔루스

₩10,120▲ ₩50 (0.50%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,797

vs the current price (₩10,120)

Enterprise value
−₩103B
Equity value
₩138B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 62% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩10,120, the model needs an operating margin of 12.7% every year (it uses −7.4%).
  • Margins ranged from −13.7% to 8.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩4,115
−59.3%
Base
₩3,797
−62.5%
Bull
₩3,486
−65.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−7.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -9.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -7.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 8.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 10.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 10.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.38, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩105B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩238B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2.5B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
36,313,190
Share price
₩10,120
Market cap
₩367B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩79B₩79B₩82B₩96B₩90B₩87B₩87B₩89B
Growth−27.8%0.7%2.9%−9.2%−6.2%−3.1%−0.1%3.0%
EBIT−₩9.8B−₩9.5B−₩11B−₩7.1B−₩6.6B−₩6.4B−₩6.4B−₩6.6B
EBIT margin−12.4%−12.0%−13.7%−7.4%−7.4%−7.4%−7.4%−7.4%
After-tax EBIT−₩7.1B−₩6.9B−₩8.1B−₩5.1B−₩4.8B−₩4.7B−₩4.7B−₩4.8B
+ Depreciation———₩7.7B₩7.3B₩7B₩7B₩7.2B
− Capital spending₩7.1B₩10B₩6.6B₩9.7B₩9.1B₩8.8B₩8.8B₩9B
− Working capital−₩247B−₩5.6B₩8B−₩1.1B−₩646M−₩303M−₩9.5M₩284M
Free cash flow———−₩6B−₩6B−₩6.1B−₩6.4B−₩6.9B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———−₩5.6B−₩5.2B−₩4.9B−₩4.8B−₩4.8B

Terminal value −₩110B, worth −₩77B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩8,702 a share)Now 1.16×₩13,0501.50×₩21,9212.52×₩41,0674.72×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩3,735₩3,477₩3,158₩2,755₩2,231
6.8%₩3,978₩3,766₩3,511₩3,195₩2,797
7.3%₩4,182₩4,006₩3,797₩3,544₩3,232
7.8%₩4,356₩4,208₩4,034₩3,827₩3,577
8.3%₩4,507₩4,381₩4,234₩4,062₩3,857

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩367B
Enterprise value
₩129B
P/E
—
P/B
1.2×
P/S
3.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩13,400₩16,230₩26,350₩29,850₩54,500
Market cap₩487B₩589B₩957B₩1.1T₩2T
P/E—324.4×678.9×153.9×220.8×
P/B1.5×1.9×3.0×3.4×6.4×
P/S6.0×7.4×12.2×9.9×16.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Iljin Hysolus—1.2×3.5×—0.0%
Hyundai-Rotem10.3×2.5×1.3×—0.8%
INNOXCorporation2.2×0.3×0.9×—0.0%
KR Motors0.9×0.3×0.7×—0.0%
Alton295.9×1.0×0.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)6.3×0.7×0.8×—0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Iljin Hysolus / 일진하이솔루스 / 271940 / KRX:271940

Source: KRX statistical information