Jeil Pharmaceutical제일약품
271980 · KOSPI · ₩271980 · 제일약품
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩54B
- Equity value
- −₩139B
- WACC
- 6.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩8,830, the model needs an operating margin of 3.3% every year (it uses −0.4%).
- 71% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
- Today's P/E is 13.9× against a typical 41.0× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩2,751
- −68.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−0.4%).
Revenue growth
- -7.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -5.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -0.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 1.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 10.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩543B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩49B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩12B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩47B
- Shares
- 14,704,872
- Share price
- ₩8,830
- Market cap
- ₩130B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩726B | ₩705B | ₩567B | ₩502B | ₩476B | ₩465B | ₩466B | ₩480B |
| Growth | 0.6% | −3.0% | −19.5% | −7.7% | −5.1% | −2.4% | 0.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩8.7B | −₩19B | ₩21B | −₩2B | −₩1.9B | −₩1.9B | −₩1.9B | −₩1.9B |
| EBIT margin | 1.2% | −2.7% | 3.6% | −0.4% | −0.4% | −0.4% | −0.4% | −0.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩6.3B | −₩14B | ₩15B | −₩1.5B | −₩1.4B | −₩1.3B | −₩1.4B | −₩1.4B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩5B | ₩4.8B | ₩4.6B | ₩4.7B | ₩4.8B |
| − Capital spending | ₩9.6B | ₩6.6B | ₩9.1B | ₩6.5B | ₩6.2B | ₩6B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.2B |
| − Working capital | −₩6.6B | ₩37B | ₩42B | −₩4.4B | −₩2.7B | −₩1.2B | ₩148M | ₩1.5B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩1.5B | −₩97M | −₩1.5B | −₩2.9B | −₩4.3B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.939 | 0.882 | 0.829 | 0.778 | 0.731 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩1.4B | −₩85M | −₩1.3B | −₩2.3B | −₩3.2B |
Terminal value −₩66B, worth −₩48B today: 90% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩13,996 a share)Now 0.63× | ₩13,3840.96× | ₩20,3341.45× | ₩31,3812.24× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩634 a share)Now 13.9× | ₩5,3898.50× | ₩25,95341.0× | ₩43,79869.1× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩130B
- Enterprise value
- ₩177B
- P/E
- 13.9×
- P/B
- 0.6×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩15,150 | ₩11,400 | ₩17,100 | ₩21,000 | ₩33,850 |
| Market cap | ₩223B | ₩168B | ₩251B | ₩309B | ₩498B |
| P/E | 9.5× | — | 50.2× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 0.9× | 1.6× | 2.0× | 3.0× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.4× | 0.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeil Pharmaceutical | 13.9× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 31.9× | 7.6× | 13.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 79.4× | 28.6× | 60.3× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 15.2× | 6.0× | 7.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 23.2× | 2.3× | 2.4× | 30.2× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.4× | 54.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.8× | 11.4× | 30.2× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Jeil Pharmaceutical / 제일약품 / 271980 / KRX:271980
Source: KRX statistical information