KOSPI · 272550 · Rubber & plastics · ₩272550

Samyang Packaging삼양패키징

272550 · KOSPI · ₩272550 · 삼양패키징

₩9,520▲ ₩50 (0.53%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩21,037

vs the current price (₩9,520)

Enterprise value: ₩430B
Equity value: ₩317B
WACC: 5.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 121% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩9,520, the model needs an operating margin of 4.9% every year (it uses 7.0%).
Or revenue growth −12.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Today's P/E is 7.0× against a typical 11.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩4,803; −49.5%
Base: ₩21,037; +121.0%
Bull: ₩53,967; +466.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.0%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 11%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 21.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 32%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 42.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation8.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending10.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital14.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩433B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩113B
Shares: 15,068,406
Share price: ₩9,520
Market cap: ₩143B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩422B	₩448B	₩420B	₩437B	₩444B	₩453B	₩464B	₩478B
Growth	3.5%	6.3%	−6.2%	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
EBIT	₩32B	₩34B	₩25B	₩31B	₩31B	₩32B	₩32B	₩33B
EBIT margin	7.7%	7.5%	5.9%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%
After-tax EBIT	₩24B	₩24B	₩18B	₩22B	₩23B	₩23B	₩24B	₩24B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩36B	₩36B	₩37B	₩38B	₩39B
− Capital spending	₩66B	₩22B	₩44B	₩45B	₩46B	₩47B	₩48B	₩49B
− Working capital	−₩31B	₩15B	−₩39B	₩623M	₩944M	₩1.3B	₩1.6B	₩2B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩12B	₩12B	₩12B	₩12B	₩12B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.945	0.893	0.843	0.797	0.753
Present value	—	—	—	₩12B	₩11B	₩10B	₩9.7B	₩9.2B

Terminal value ₩502B, worth ₩378B today: 88% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩25,900 a share)Now 0.37×	₩11,8770.46×	₩17,7080.68×	₩26,4331.02×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,361 a share)Now 6.99×	₩10,0007.34×	₩15,63111.5×	₩29,98922.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,601 a share)Now 2.64×	₩26,4507.34×	₩41,34411.5×	₩79,31922.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.8%	₩23,040	₩26,680	₩31,590	₩38,584	₩49,352
5.3%	₩19,325	₩22,024	₩25,522	₩30,243	₩36,967
5.8%	₩16,382	₩18,444	₩21,037	₩24,399	₩28,936
6.3%	₩13,993	₩15,607	₩17,588	₩20,079	₩23,310
6.8%	₩12,017	₩13,305	₩14,855	₩16,757	₩19,150

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩143B
Enterprise value: ₩256B
P/E: 7.0×
P/B: 0.4×
P/S: 0.3×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 5.3%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩13,610	₩16,380	₩15,810	₩18,650	₩25,000
Market cap	₩205B	₩247B	₩238B	₩281B	₩377B
P/E	11.6×	12.1×	9.4×	23.2×	12.4×
P/B	0.5×	0.7×	0.6×	0.8×	1.2×
P/S	0.5×	0.6×	0.6×	0.7×	1.0×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	3.7%	3.1%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Samyang Packaging	7.0×	0.4×	0.3×	—	5.3%
Hankook Tire & Technology	5.8×	0.5×	0.3×	—	4.0%
Kumho Tire	3.1×	0.6×	0.3×	—	0.0%
Pum-Tech Korea	19.5×	2.5×	2.1×	—	0.7%
Dongwon Systems	9.7×	0.7×	0.4×	5.7×	2.8%
Nexen Tire	3.7×	0.3×	0.2×	—	3.4%
PI Advanced Materials	12.0×	1.2×	1.6×	4.8×	2.4%
Similar companies (median)	7.7×	0.6×	0.4×	5.3×	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samyang Packaging / 삼양패키징 / 272550 / KRX:272550

Source: KRX statistical information