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Lake Materials

281740 · KOSDAQ · ₩281740 · 레이크머티리얼즈

₩10,990▼ ₩370 (3.26%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,838

vs the current price (₩10,990)

Enterprise value
₩285B
Equity value
₩121B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 83% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩10,990, the model needs an operating margin of 48.1% every year (it uses 19.4%).
  • Or revenue growth +31.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from 9.4% to 26.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 52.7× against a typical 43.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩282
−97.4%
Base
₩1,838
−83.3%
Bull
₩4,465
−59.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (19.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 19.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 25.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 31.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.75

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.63, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩148B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩171B
+ Stakes and investments
₩8.7B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩1.4B
Shares
65,730,548
Share price
₩10,990
Market cap
₩722B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩118B₩139B₩141B₩152B₩156B₩160B₩165B₩170B
Growth−10.4%17.8%1.8%2.4%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.0%
EBIT₩30B₩22B₩13B₩29B₩30B₩31B₩32B₩33B
EBIT margin25.1%16.0%9.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%
After-tax EBIT₩21B₩16B₩9.6B₩21B₩22B₩23B₩23B₩24B
+ Depreciation———₩38B₩39B₩40B₩41B₩43B
− Capital spending₩62B₩44B₩14B₩48B₩49B₩50B₩52B₩53B
− Working capital₩22B₩16B₩6.9B₩1.4B₩1.6B₩1.7B₩1.9B₩2B
Free cash flow———₩11B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩11B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩9.8B₩9.3B₩8.8B₩8.3B₩8B

Terminal value ₩344B, worth ₩241B today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,314 a share)Now 4.75×₩11,8565.12×₩15,3416.63×₩27,69312.0×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩209 a share)Now 52.7×₩3,31215.9×₩9,06543.5×₩13,20063.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩154 a share)Now 71.3×₩2,44915.9×₩6,70443.5×₩9,76263.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩2,136₩2,481₩2,903₩3,433₩4,116
6.9%₩1,709₩1,985₩2,316₩2,721₩3,230
7.4%₩1,350₩1,574₩1,838₩2,156₩2,545
7.9%₩1,044₩1,228₩1,442₩1,696₩2,001
8.4%₩779₩933₩1,109₩1,315₩1,558

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩722B
Enterprise value
₩893B
P/E
52.7×
P/B
4.7×
P/S
4.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩14,750₩10,960₩17,350₩4,370₩5,460
Market cap₩970B₩720B₩1.1T₩287B₩359B
P/E126.1×34.5×47.3×10.6×19.9×
P/B7.2×5.5×10.4×3.3×6.2×
P/S6.9×5.2×9.7×2.2×4.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.2%0.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Lake Materials52.7×4.7×4.9×—0.3%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.5×0.3×—0.0%
Hanwha6.1×0.4×0.1×—1.4%
SKC—1.8×1.7×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×9.0×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.2×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.2×0.4×0.4×9.0×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Lake Materials / 레이크머티리얼즈 / 281740 / KRX:281740

Source: KRX statistical information