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Kctech

281820 · KOSPI · ₩281820 · 케이씨텍

₩87,500▼ ₩10,000 (10.26%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩37,936

vs the current price (₩87,500)

Enterprise value
₩718B
Equity value
₩751B
WACC
8.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 57% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩87,500, the model needs an operating margin of 32.9% every year (it uses 14.9%).
  • Or revenue growth +25.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 19.8× against a typical 11.8× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩26,046
−70.2%
Base
₩37,936
−56.6%
Bull
₩57,038
−34.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 14.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 5.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.79

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.69, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩476B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩32B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.5B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
19,798,661
Share price
₩87,500
Market cap
₩1.7T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩287B₩385B₩383B₩478B₩484B₩492B₩504B₩519B
Growth−24.1%34.3%−0.7%0.4%1.1%1.7%2.4%3.0%
EBIT₩33B₩50B₩60B₩71B₩72B₩73B₩75B₩77B
EBIT margin11.4%12.9%15.7%14.9%14.9%14.9%14.9%14.9%
After-tax EBIT₩24B₩36B₩43B₩52B₩52B₩53B₩54B₩56B
+ Depreciation₩14B₩15B₩16B₩21B₩21B₩22B₩22B₩23B
− Capital spending₩14B₩12B₩29B₩24B₩25B₩25B₩26B₩26B
− Working capital−₩145B−₩38B₩272B₩762M₩2.1B₩3.3B₩4.7B₩6B
Free cash flow₩169B₩78B−₩242B₩48B₩47B₩46B₩46B₩46B
Discount factor———0.9230.8520.7860.7250.670
Present value———₩44B₩40B₩36B₩33B₩31B

Terminal value ₩796B, worth ₩533B today: 74% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩29,012 a share)Now 3.02×₩24,7920.85×₩35,9881.24×₩65,0002.24×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩4,408 a share)Now 19.8×₩25,0195.68×₩52,23411.8×₩118,72926.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩4,265 a share)Now 20.5×₩24,2075.68×₩50,53711.8×₩114,87226.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.4%₩40,355₩42,360₩44,733₩47,588₩51,090
7.9%₩37,486₩39,128₩41,044₩43,311₩46,039
8.4%₩35,008₩36,368₩37,936₩39,766₩41,931
8.9%₩32,848₩33,984₩35,282₩36,778₩38,524
9.4%₩30,947₩31,905₩32,989₩34,227₩35,654

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.7T
Enterprise value
₩1.7T
P/E
19.8×
P/B
3.0×
P/S
3.6×
EV/EBITDA
15.3×
Dividend yield
0.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩39,650₩26,050₩26,800₩14,800₩24,050
Market cap₩785B₩516B₩531B₩293B₩476B
P/E14.7×9.8×16.7×5.3×11.4×
P/B1.5×1.1×1.2×0.7×1.2×
P/S2.1×1.3×1.8×0.8×1.4×
EV/EBITDA10.0×4.0×7.2×3.7×6.6×
Dividend yield1.1%1.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kctech19.8×3.0×3.6×15.3×0.5%
TSE23.5×5.2×4.3×—0.2%
Classys12.4×3.1×4.6×9.7×3.8%
Park Systems66.3×4.5×7.9×—0.2%
DI37.8×5.2×2.3×—0.6%
LivsMed—6.1×19.4×—0.0%
Seers20.5×12.6×8.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)23.5×5.2×6.3×9.7×0.2%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kctech / 케이씨텍 / 281820 / KRX:281820

Source: KRX statistical information