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BGF retail

282330 · KOSPI · ₩282330 · BGF리테일

₩127,700▼ ₩4,200 (3.18%)End-of-day · Oct 26, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩266,081

vs the current price (₩127,700)

Enterprise value
₩4.1T
Equity value
₩4.6T
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 108% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩127,700, the model needs an operating margin of 1.3% every year (it uses 3.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −15.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 10.3× against a typical 11.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩75,355
−41.0%
Base
₩266,081
+108.4%
Bull
₩603,850
+372.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩9.3T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩420B
+ Stakes and investments
₩45B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
17,283,906
Share price
₩127,700
Market cap
₩2.2T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩8.2T₩8.7T₩9.1T₩9.9T₩10T₩11T₩11T₩12T
Growth7.6%6.2%4.2%6.0%5.2%4.5%3.7%3.0%
EBIT₩253B₩252B₩254B₩296B₩311B₩325B₩337B₩347B
EBIT margin3.1%2.9%2.8%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
After-tax EBIT₩184B₩182B₩184B₩214B₩226B₩236B₩244B₩252B
+ Depreciation———₩207B₩218B₩228B₩236B₩243B
− Capital spending₩213B₩225B₩247B₩256B₩270B₩282B₩292B₩301B
− Working capital−₩107B−₩60B₩17B−₩39B−₩36B−₩33B−₩28B−₩24B
Free cash flow———₩204B₩210B₩214B₩216B₩218B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value———₩190B₩182B₩173B₩163B₩153B

Terminal value ₩4.7T, worth ₩3.3T today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩76,546 a share)Now 1.67×₩120,2891.57×₩150,1571.96×₩295,8873.87×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩12,452 a share)Now 10.3×₩118,0069.48×₩142,15811.4×₩238,41519.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩13,152 a share)Now 9.71×₩124,6419.48×₩150,15011.4×₩251,81819.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩268,046₩292,363₩322,333₩360,168₩409,411
6.8%₩247,041₩267,075₩291,290₩321,133₩358,809
7.3%₩229,362₩246,133₩266,081₩290,191₩319,905
7.8%₩214,277₩228,507₩245,206₩265,066₩289,069
8.3%₩201,256₩213,469₩227,637₩244,260₩264,030

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩2.2T
Enterprise value
₩1.8T
P/E
10.3×
P/B
1.7×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩104,800₩102,500₩131,300₩210,500₩145,500
Market cap₩1.8T₩1.8T₩2.3T₩3.6T₩2.5T
P/E9.3×9.1×11.6×18.8×17.0×
P/B1.4×1.5×2.1×3.8×3.1×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.3×0.5×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.9%4.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
BGF retail10.3×1.7×0.2×—3.2%
Samsung C&T17.0×0.4×1.1×—1.0%
POSCO International10.5×1.2×0.3×—3.7%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
ISC38.4×5.1×10.7×—0.6%
Dong SUH Companies18.8×1.6×5.1×—4.2%
SK Gas7.3×0.6×0.3×—3.6%
Similar companies (median)13.7×1.0×0.9×—3.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: BGF retail / BGF리테일 / 282330 / KRX:282330

Source: KRX statistical information