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Aribio Holdings

290690 · KOSDAQ · ₩290690 · 아리바이오홀딩스

₩2,685▼ ₩15 (0.56%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩52B
Equity value
−₩108B
WACC
6.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,685, the model needs an operating margin of 37.7% every year (it uses −9.4%).
  • Margins ranged from −17.6% to 7.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−9.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -9.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 23.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.02, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩41B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩56B
Shares
53,072,805
Share price
₩2,685
Market cap
₩143B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩60B₩51B₩38B₩37B₩35B₩34B₩33B₩34B
Growth7.0%−15.3%−24.5%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩516M−₩6.6B−₩6.7B−₩3.5B−₩3.3B−₩3.2B−₩3.1B−₩3.2B
EBIT margin0.9%−13.1%−17.6%−9.4%−9.4%−9.4%−9.4%−9.4%
After-tax EBIT₩374M−₩4.8B−₩4.9B−₩2.5B−₩2.4B−₩2.3B−₩2.3B−₩2.3B
+ Depreciation———₩372M₩347M₩335M₩335M₩345M
− Capital spending₩627M₩511M₩689M₩484M₩452M₩436M₩435M₩448M
− Working capital₩728M₩3.1B−₩4.1B−₩985M−₩594M−₩289M−₩16M₩239M
Free cash flow———−₩1.7B−₩1.9B−₩2.1B−₩2.4B−₩2.7B
Discount factor———0.9400.8840.8310.7810.734
Present value———−₩1.6B−₩1.7B−₩1.7B−₩1.8B−₩2B

Terminal value −₩59B, worth −₩44B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,139 a share)Now 1.25×₩5,2202.44×₩7,9193.70×₩19,6999.21×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.4%—————
5.9%—————
6.4%—————
6.9%—————
7.4%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩143B
Enterprise value
₩198B
P/E
10.6×
P/B
1.3×
P/S
3.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,560₩8,350₩20,083₩2,134₩3,401
Market cap₩242B₩443B₩1.1T₩113B₩180B
P/E————43.4×
P/B2.7×5.7×17.1×2.6×3.8×
P/S6.3×8.7×17.8×2.0×2.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Aribio Holdings10.6×1.3×3.4×—0.0%
LS Electric61.1×11.2×4.2×37.8×0.0%
Hyosung Heavy Industries30.5×6.9×2.8×—0.4%
HD Hyundai Electric18.7×7.0×3.7×—0.0%
Gaon Cable110.9×13.4×2.5×57.9×0.0%
Sanil Electric26.6×7.2×8.2×—0.8%
Taihan Cable & Solution—2.1×1.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)30.5×7.1×3.2×47.8×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Aribio Holdings / 아리바이오홀딩스 / 290690 / KRX:290690

Source: KRX statistical information