KOSPI · 293940 · Real estate · ₩293940

Shinhan Alpha REIT신한알파리츠

293940 · KOSPI · ₩293940 · 신한알파리츠

₩5,740▲ ₩20 (0.35%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,503

vs the current price (₩5,740)

Enterprise value: ₩1.6T
Equity value: ₩182B
WACC: 5.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 74% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩5,740, the model needs an operating margin of 72.8% every year (it uses 55.0%).
Or revenue growth +6.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Margins ranged from 52.3% to 61.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: ₩1,503; −73.8%
Bull: ₩10,677; +86.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (55.0%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 117.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 214.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 310.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 46.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin55%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation11.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
Working capital-10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩86B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩1.3T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩37B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩175B
Shares: 120,940,123
Share price: ₩5,740
Market cap: ₩694B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩48B	₩58B	₩83B	₩102B	₩116B	₩129B	₩137B	₩141B
Growth	−5.3%	21.8%	42.1%	17.9%	14.2%	10.4%	6.7%	3.0%
EBIT	₩25B	₩34B	₩51B	₩56B	₩64B	₩71B	₩75B	₩78B
EBIT margin	52.5%	57.9%	61.7%	55.0%	55.0%	55.0%	55.0%	55.0%
After-tax EBIT	₩18B	₩24B	₩37B	₩41B	₩46B	₩51B	₩55B	₩56B
+ Depreciation	₩6.4B	₩6.6B	₩8.3B	₩12B	₩13B	₩15B	₩16B	₩16B
− Capital spending	—	—	—	₩4.1B	₩4.7B	₩5.1B	₩5.5B	₩5.6B
− Working capital	₩9.8B	−₩4.8B	−₩1T	−₩1.5B	−₩1.4B	−₩1.2B	−₩861M	−₩411M
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩50B	₩57B	₩62B	₩66B	₩67B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.950	0.903	0.858	0.815	0.774
Present value	—	—	—	₩47B	₩51B	₩53B	₩54B	₩52B

Terminal value ₩1.7T, worth ₩1.3T today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩4,968 a share)Now 1.16×	₩5,3331.07×	₩7,0521.42×	₩16,8433.39×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.2%	₩1,964	₩4,138	₩7,280	₩12,225	₩21,144
4.7%	₩166	₩1,731	₩3,866	₩6,953	₩11,810
5.2%	—	—	₩1,503	₩3,601	₩6,633
5.7%	—	—	—	₩1,280	₩3,341
6.2%	—	—	—	—	₩1,062

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩694B
Enterprise value: ₩2T
P/E: 98.0×
P/B: 1.2×
P/S: 8.0×
EV/EBITDA: 34.4×
Dividend yield: 3.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩5,590	₩5,640	₩6,400	₩6,570	₩7,950
Market cap	₩676B	₩682B	₩774B	₩795B	₩961B
P/E	59.8×	146.6×	11.1×	161.5×	561.5×
P/B	1.1×	1.4×	1.4×	1.9×	3.4×
P/S	8.2×	11.7×	16.2×	15.7×	23.0×
EV/EBITDA	30.5×	25.3×	57.7×	64.2×	86.4×
Dividend yield	3.1%	3.1%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Shinhan Alpha REIT	98.0×	1.2×	8.0×	34.4×	3.0%
SK Reit	50.0×	0.8×	23.0×	—	1.3%
Lotte Reit	59.8×	1.1×	16.4×	—	2.8%
Hanwha Reit	68.0×	1.4×	16.6×	45.3×	2.5%
ESR Kendall Square Reit	1,180.4×	0.7×	11.6×	73.5×	4.5%
SamsungFN Reit	148.2×	1.1×	37.2×	—	1.5%
Koramco Life Infra Reit	73.7×	0.8×	9.2×	15.0×	4.3%
Similar companies (median)	70.8×	1.0×	16.5×	45.3×	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shinhan Alpha REIT / 신한알파리츠 / 293940 / KRX:293940

Source: KRX statistical information