coocon쿠콘
294570 · KOSDAQ · ₩294570 · 쿠콘
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩51,932
vs the current price (₩23,450)
- Enterprise value
- ₩270B
- Equity value
- ₩524B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 121% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩23,450, the model needs an operating margin of −1.4% every year (it uses 26.7%).
- Margins ranged from 22.7% to 31.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 37% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- Today's P/E is 10.8× against a typical 15.6× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩43,324
- +84.8%
- Base
- ₩51,932
- +121.5%
- Bull
- ₩65,826
- +180.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (26.7%).
Revenue growth
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 26.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 4.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.4, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩69B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩164B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩91B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 10,091,732
- Share price
- ₩23,450
- Market cap
- ₩237B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩68B | ₩73B | ₩69B | ₩72B | ₩74B | ₩77B | ₩79B | ₩81B |
| Growth | 8.9% | 6.9% | −4.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩17B | ₩17B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩21B | ₩22B |
| EBIT margin | 24.3% | 22.7% | 27.2% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩16B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.7B |
| − Capital spending | ₩3.7B | ₩3B | ₩2.1B | ₩3B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩16B | −₩32B | −₩31B | −₩243M | −₩244M | −₩238M | −₩238M | −₩237M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩15B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
Terminal value ₩301B, worth ₩211B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩18,696 a share)Now 1.25× | ₩21,5761.15× | ₩33,0291.77× | ₩70,5423.77× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,179 a share)Now 10.8× | ₩23,45010.8× | ₩33,94915.6× | ₩110,04350.5× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩5,231 a share)Now 4.48× | ₩56,30810.8× | ₩81,51815.6× | ₩264,23750.5× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩52,768 | ₩55,197 | ₩58,191 | ₩61,971 | ₩66,895 |
| 6.8% | ₩50,368 | ₩52,346 | ₩54,736 | ₩57,681 | ₩61,401 |
| 7.3% | ₩48,349 | ₩49,986 | ₩51,932 | ₩54,284 | ₩57,182 |
| 7.8% | ₩46,627 | ₩48,001 | ₩49,612 | ₩51,527 | ₩53,841 |
| 8.3% | ₩45,141 | ₩46,307 | ₩47,660 | ₩49,245 | ₩51,130 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩237B
- Enterprise value
- ₩73B
- P/E
- 10.8×
- P/B
- 1.3×
- P/S
- 3.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩28,400 | ₩16,280 | ₩20,150 | ₩32,750 | ₩72,600 |
| Market cap | ₩287B | ₩164B | ₩203B | ₩331B | ₩733B |
| P/E | 13.3× | 10.4× | 22.6× | 67.4× | 106.6× |
| P/B | 1.7× | 1.1× | 1.6× | 2.5× | 5.7× |
| P/S | 4.1× | 2.2× | 3.0× | 5.3× | 12.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 0.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coocon | 10.8× | 1.3× | 3.4× | — | 1.3% |
| NAVER | 13.0× | 0.9× | 2.0× | — | 1.5% |
| Kakao | 37.7× | 1.1× | 1.6× | — | 0.3% |
| Daou Technology | 1.9× | 0.4× | 0.0× | — | 5.6% |
| NICE Information Service | 11.7× | 2.1× | 1.6× | 6.9× | 2.9% |
| Kinx | 35.7× | 4.0× | 5.2× | 15.6× | 0.3% |
| Cafe24 | 11.1× | 1.5× | 1.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 12.3× | 1.3× | 1.6× | 6.9× | 0.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: coocon / 쿠콘 / 294570 / KRX:294570
Source: KRX statistical information