HVM에이치브이엠
295310 · KOSDAQ · ₩295310 · 에이치브이엠
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩200B
- Equity value
- −₩209B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩57,000, the model needs an operating margin of 45.7% every year (it uses 0.7%).
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.7%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (47.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (47.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (47.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (47.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (47.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 0.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 33.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩89B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩9.2B
- Shares
- 12,640,627
- Share price
- ₩57,000
- Market cap
- ₩721B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩45B | ₩67B | ₩112B | ₩133B | ₩152B | ₩165B | ₩170B |
| Growth | — | 47.4% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩6.8B | ₩5.8B | ₩781M | ₩933M | ₩1.1B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B |
| EBIT margin | −15.0% | 8.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩4.9B | ₩4.2B | ₩566M | ₩677M | ₩771M | ₩837M | ₩862M |
| + Depreciation | ₩3.2B | ₩4.3B | ₩7.6B | ₩9.1B | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩12B |
| − Capital spending | ₩15B | ₩22B | ₩37B | ₩44B | ₩50B | ₩55B | ₩56B |
| − Working capital | — | ₩43B | ₩8.9B | ₩8.7B | ₩7.5B | ₩5.2B | ₩2B |
| Free cash flow | −₩17B | −₩56B | −₩38B | −₩43B | −₩47B | −₩48B | −₩46B |
| Discount factor | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.753 | 0.701 |
| Present value | — | — | −₩35B | −₩37B | −₩38B | −₩36B | −₩32B |
Terminal value −₩31B, worth −₩22B today: 11% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩11,101 a share)Now 5.13× | ₩30,0852.71× | ₩51,3744.63× | ₩128,12811.5× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩721B
- Enterprise value
- ₩729B
- P/E
- 1,158.7×
- P/B
- 5.1×
- P/S
- 8.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- 56.4×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩58,900 | ₩24,500 |
| Market cap | ₩745B | ₩310B |
| P/E | 59.0× | — |
| P/B | 8.3× | 4.7× |
| P/S | 11.2× | 6.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 75.5× | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HVM | 1,158.7× | 5.1× | 8.1× | 56.4× | 0.0% |
| POSCO Holdings | 16.2× | 0.4× | 0.3× | 7.7× | 3.6% |
| Korea Zinc | 18.1× | 1.6× | 0.8× | — | 2.3% |
| Hyundai Steel | — | 0.2× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| Poongsan | 8.0× | 0.7× | 0.3× | 5.9× | 2.9% |
| SeAH Besteel Holdings | 12.7× | 0.6× | 0.3× | 9.6× | 3.8% |
| Sama Aluminium | — | 4.3× | 3.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 14.4× | 0.6× | 0.3× | 7.7× | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HVM / 에이치브이엠 / 295310 / KRX:295310
Source: KRX statistical information