The Nature Holdings더네이쳐홀딩스
298540 · KOSDAQ · ₩298540 · 더네이쳐홀딩스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩46,524
vs the current price (₩6,230)
- Enterprise value
- ₩787B
- Equity value
- ₩674B
- WACC
- 5.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 647% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩6,230, the model needs an operating margin of 3.4% every year (it uses 9.4%).
- Margins ranged from 1.5% to 18.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩20,436
- +228.0%
- Base
- ₩46,524
- +646.8%
- Bull
- ₩102,707
- +1,548.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.4%).
Revenue growth
- -1.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 9.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 4.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 23.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩460B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩145B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩89B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩57B
- Shares
- 14,486,386
- Share price
- ₩6,230
- Market cap
- ₩90B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩548B | ₩517B | ₩478B | ₩454B | ₩453B | ₩456B | ₩465B | ₩479B |
| Growth | 10.2% | −5.8% | −7.6% | −1.4% | −0.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩67B | ₩30B | ₩7B | ₩43B | ₩43B | ₩43B | ₩44B | ₩45B |
| EBIT margin | 12.2% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩49B | ₩22B | ₩5.1B | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩32B | ₩33B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩18B | ₩18B | ₩18B | ₩18B | ₩19B |
| − Capital spending | ₩32B | ₩22B | ₩22B | ₩22B | ₩22B | ₩22B | ₩23B | ₩23B |
| − Working capital | ₩1.3B | −₩20B | −₩13B | −₩1.5B | −₩319M | ₩847M | ₩2B | ₩3.3B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩28B | ₩27B | ₩26B | ₩25B | ₩25B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.949 | 0.901 | 0.856 | 0.813 | 0.772 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩26B | ₩24B | ₩22B | ₩20B | ₩19B |
Terminal value ₩875B, worth ₩675B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩22,832 a share)Now 0.27× | ₩7,2480.32× | ₩15,6870.69× | ₩50,3042.20× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3% | ₩50,436 | ₩58,513 | ₩70,052 | ₩87,902 | ₩119,212 |
| 4.8% | ₩42,716 | ₩48,450 | ₩56,204 | ₩67,280 | ₩84,414 |
| 5.3% | ₩36,786 | ₩41,022 | ₩46,524 | ₩53,964 | ₩64,592 |
| 5.8% | ₩32,087 | ₩35,314 | ₩39,378 | ₩44,655 | ₩51,791 |
| 6.3% | ₩28,274 | ₩30,792 | ₩33,886 | ₩37,782 | ₩42,842 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩90B
- Enterprise value
- ₩216B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 8.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩8,820 | ₩9,320 | ₩17,550 | ₩31,950 | ₩29,600 |
| Market cap | ₩128B | ₩135B | ₩254B | ₩463B | ₩429B |
| P/E | 18.7× | 8.2× | 5.1× | 6.7× | 7.4× |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.8× | 1.6× | 1.9× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.9× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 5.7% | 5.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: The Nature Holdings / 더네이쳐홀딩스 / 298540 / KRX:298540
Source: KRX statistical information