Hanilcementco

300720 · KOSPI · ₩300720 · 한일시멘트

₩16,730▲ ₩30 (0.18%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩22,400

vs the current price (₩16,730)

Enterprise value
₩1.9T
Equity value
₩1.6T
WACC
6.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩11,216
−33.0%
Base
₩22,400
+33.9%
Bull
₩42,431
+153.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.8%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 10.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 8.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 10.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 7.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.4T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩353B
+ Stakes and investments
₩126B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
73,545,209
Share price
₩16,730
Market cap
₩1.2T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.8T₩1.7T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.4T
Growth21.0%−3.2%−18.2%−1.4%−0.3%0.8%1.9%3.0%
EBIT₩247B₩271B₩133B₩147B₩147B₩148B₩151B₩155B
EBIT margin13.7%15.6%9.3%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%
After-tax EBIT₩179B₩197B₩96B₩107B₩106B₩107B₩109B₩113B
+ Depreciation———₩119B₩118B₩119B₩121B₩125B
− Capital spending₩212B₩173B₩154B₩147B₩147B₩148B₩151B₩155B
− Working capital₩7.4B−₩99B−₩138B−₩1.5B−₩315M₩837M₩2B₩3.2B
Free cash flow———₩80B₩78B₩78B₩78B₩79B
Discount factor———0.9380.8790.8240.7730.724
Present value———₩75B₩69B₩64B₩60B₩57B

Terminal value ₩2.1T, worth ₩1.6T today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩25,187 a share)Now 0.66×₩14,8260.59×₩16,5860.66×₩25,0961.00×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,383 a share)Now 12.1×₩6,8164.93×₩16,10911.6×₩22,87216.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,630 a share)Now 6.36×₩12,9654.93×₩30,64111.6×₩43,50516.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.7%₩23,568₩26,209₩29,569₩33,990₩40,070
6.2%₩20,898₩22,976₩25,552₩28,830₩33,143
6.7%₩18,702₩20,372₩22,400₩24,913₩28,111
7.2%₩16,864₩18,230₩19,860₩21,838₩24,289
7.7%₩15,304₩16,437₩17,770₩19,360₩21,290

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.2T
Enterprise value
₩1.5T
P/E
12.1×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩17,970₩14,520₩12,790₩11,650₩21,000
Market cap₩1.3T₩1.1T₩941B₩857B₩1.5T
P/E17.8×5.8×5.3×10.9×19.6×
P/B0.7×0.6×0.6×0.6×1.1×
P/S0.9×0.6×0.5×0.6×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.6%6.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hanilcementco12.1×0.7×0.9×—6.0%
Tokai Carbon Korea30.7×4.3×7.0×—0.7%
Wonik QnC13.8×1.2×0.7×—0.5%
Sampyo Cement16.9×0.8×0.9×6.0×2.2%
Hanil Holdings9.5×0.3×0.3×—5.9%
IS Dongseo5.2×0.3×0.4×—3.5%
KCC Glass—0.3×0.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.5×0.5×6.0×1.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hanilcementco / 한일시멘트 / 300720 / KRX:300720

Source: KRX statistical information