Hanilcementco한일시멘트
300720 · KOSPI · ₩300720 · 한일시멘트
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩22,400
vs the current price (₩16,730)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.9T
- Equity value
- ₩1.6T
- WACC
- 6.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩11,216
- −33.0%
- Base
- ₩22,400
- +33.9%
- Bull
- ₩42,431
- +153.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.8%).
Revenue growth
- -1.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 8.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 10.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.4T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩353B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩126B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 73,545,209
- Share price
- ₩16,730
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.8T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T |
| Growth | 21.0% | −3.2% | −18.2% | −1.4% | −0.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩247B | ₩271B | ₩133B | ₩147B | ₩147B | ₩148B | ₩151B | ₩155B |
| EBIT margin | 13.7% | 15.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩179B | ₩197B | ₩96B | ₩107B | ₩106B | ₩107B | ₩109B | ₩113B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩119B | ₩118B | ₩119B | ₩121B | ₩125B |
| − Capital spending | ₩212B | ₩173B | ₩154B | ₩147B | ₩147B | ₩148B | ₩151B | ₩155B |
| − Working capital | ₩7.4B | −₩99B | −₩138B | −₩1.5B | −₩315M | ₩837M | ₩2B | ₩3.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩80B | ₩78B | ₩78B | ₩78B | ₩79B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.938 | 0.879 | 0.824 | 0.773 | 0.724 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩75B | ₩69B | ₩64B | ₩60B | ₩57B |
Terminal value ₩2.1T, worth ₩1.6T today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩25,187 a share)Now 0.66× | ₩14,8260.59× | ₩16,5860.66× | ₩25,0961.00× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,383 a share)Now 12.1× | ₩6,8164.93× | ₩16,10911.6× | ₩22,87216.5× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,630 a share)Now 6.36× | ₩12,9654.93× | ₩30,64111.6× | ₩43,50516.5× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | ₩23,568 | ₩26,209 | ₩29,569 | ₩33,990 | ₩40,070 |
| 6.2% | ₩20,898 | ₩22,976 | ₩25,552 | ₩28,830 | ₩33,143 |
| 6.7% | ₩18,702 | ₩20,372 | ₩22,400 | ₩24,913 | ₩28,111 |
| 7.2% | ₩16,864 | ₩18,230 | ₩19,860 | ₩21,838 | ₩24,289 |
| 7.7% | ₩15,304 | ₩16,437 | ₩17,770 | ₩19,360 | ₩21,290 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.5T
- P/E
- 12.1×
- P/B
- 0.7×
- P/S
- 0.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 6.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩17,970 | ₩14,520 | ₩12,790 | ₩11,650 | ₩21,000 |
| Market cap | ₩1.3T | ₩1.1T | ₩941B | ₩857B | ₩1.5T |
| P/E | 17.8× | 5.8× | 5.3× | 10.9× | 19.6× |
| P/B | 0.7× | 0.6× | 0.6× | 0.6× | 1.1× |
| P/S | 0.9× | 0.6× | 0.5× | 0.6× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 5.6% | 6.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanilcementco | 12.1× | 0.7× | 0.9× | — | 6.0% |
| Tokai Carbon Korea | 30.7× | 4.3× | 7.0× | — | 0.7% |
| Wonik QnC | 13.8× | 1.2× | 0.7× | — | 0.5% |
| Sampyo Cement | 16.9× | 0.8× | 0.9× | 6.0× | 2.2% |
| Hanil Holdings | 9.5× | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 5.9% |
| IS Dongseo | 5.2× | 0.3× | 0.4× | — | 3.5% |
| KCC Glass | — | 0.3× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 13.8× | 0.5× | 0.5× | 6.0× | 1.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Hanilcementco / 한일시멘트 / 300720 / KRX:300720
Source: KRX statistical information