PeopleBio피플바이오
304840 · KOSDAQ · ₩304840 · 피플바이오
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩17B
- Equity value
- −₩93B
- WACC
- 4.6%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Margins ranged from −1,253.8% to −263.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 19.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 10.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.27, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩3.7B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩76B
- Shares
- 24,320,660
- Share price
- ₩561
- Market cap
- ₩14B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩4.5B | ₩3.7B | ₩2.9B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.1B | ₩3B | ₩3B | ₩3B |
| Growth | 0.2% | −16.2% | −23.6% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩15B | −₩12B | −₩8.4B | −₩657M | −₩613M | −₩592M | −₩591M | −₩608M |
| EBIT margin | −342.4% | −308.2% | −293.9% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩11B | −₩8.3B | −₩6.1B | −₩476M | −₩445M | −₩429M | −₩428M | −₩441M |
| + Depreciation | ₩627M | ₩709M | ₩750M | ₩651M | ₩607M | ₩586M | ₩585M | ₩602M |
| − Capital spending | ₩760M | ₩115M | ₩324M | ₩345M | ₩322M | ₩311M | ₩310M | ₩319M |
| − Working capital | ₩14B | −₩3.7B | −₩10B | −₩146M | −₩88M | −₩43M | −₩2.4M | ₩35M |
| Free cash flow | −₩25B | −₩4.1B | ₩4.5B | −₩25M | −₩71M | −₩111M | −₩151M | −₩194M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.956 | 0.915 | 0.875 | 0.837 | 0.800 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩24M | −₩65M | −₩97M | −₩127M | −₩155M |
Terminal value −₩21B, worth −₩17B today: 97% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩1,185 a share)Now 0.47× | ₩7500.63× | ₩12,36410.4× | ₩48,86141.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩14B
- Enterprise value
- ₩89B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 3.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,069 | ₩3,070 | ₩3,075 | ₩12,077 | ₩12,496 |
| Market cap | ₩26B | ₩75B | ₩75B | ₩294B | ₩304B |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 8.9× | 3.9× | 72.0× | 18.0× |
| P/S | 9.1× | 20.0× | 16.8× | 66.1× | 526.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PeopleBio | — | 0.5× | 3.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: PeopleBio / 피플바이오 / 304840 / KRX:304840
Source: KRX statistical information