KOSPI · 322000 · Semiconductors · ₩322000

HD Hyundai Energy SolutionsHD현대에너지솔루션

322000 · KOSPI · ₩322000 · HD현대에너지솔루션

₩96,300▼ ₩11,100 (10.34%)End-of-day · Oct 26, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩32,288

vs the current price (₩96,300)

Enterprise value: ₩310B
Equity value: ₩362B
WACC: 7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 66% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩96,300, the model needs an operating margin of 16.9% every year (it uses 5.6%).
Or revenue growth +52.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩638B, operating profit ₩111B (17.4% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩785B, operating profit ₩138B (17.6% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Margins ranged from 0.8% to 9.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Today's P/E is 17.7× against a typical 17.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩19,423; −79.8%
Base: ₩32,288; −66.5%
Bull: ₩56,074; −41.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.6%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 4-0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin5.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending3.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital36.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩599B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩52B
Shares: 11,200,000
Share price: ₩96,300
Market cap: ₩1.1T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩546B	₩422B	₩493B	₩539B	₩503B	₩485B	₩484B	₩499B
Growth	−44.5%	−22.7%	16.6%	−10.0%	−6.7%	−3.5%	−0.2%	3.0%
EBIT	₩18B	₩3.5B	₩41B	₩30B	₩28B	₩27B	₩27B	₩28B
EBIT margin	3.2%	0.8%	8.4%	5.6%	5.6%	5.6%	5.6%	5.6%
After-tax EBIT	₩13B	₩2.5B	₩30B	₩22B	₩20B	₩20B	₩20B	₩20B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩14B	₩13B	₩13B	₩13B	₩13B
− Capital spending	₩11B	₩17B	₩19B	₩17B	₩16B	₩16B	₩15B	₩16B
− Working capital	−₩48B	−₩66B	₩146B	−₩22B	−₩13B	−₩6.5B	−₩357M	₩5.3B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩41B	₩31B	₩23B	₩17B	₩12B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.932	0.868	0.809	0.753	0.702
Present value	—	—	—	₩38B	₩27B	₩19B	₩13B	₩8.4B

Terminal value ₩292B, worth ₩205B today: 66% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩42,125 a share)Now 2.29×	₩28,9110.69×	₩49,0861.17×	₩123,2182.93×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩5,449 a share)Now 17.7×	₩39,4427.24×	₩96,30017.7×	₩285,55152.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩3,986 a share)Now 24.2×	₩28,8517.24×	₩70,44217.7×	₩208,87752.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.3%	₩35,465	₩36,519	₩37,802	₩39,404	₩41,468
6.8%	₩33,085	₩33,851	₩34,763	₩35,871	₩37,254
7.3%	₩31,078	₩31,636	₩32,288	₩33,063	₩34,003
7.8%	₩29,363	₩29,768	₩30,234	₩30,776	₩31,418
8.3%	₩27,879	₩28,170	₩28,499	₩28,876	₩29,312

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩1.1T
Enterprise value: ₩1T
P/E: 17.7×
P/B: 2.3×
P/S: 1.8×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩54,700	₩20,200	₩27,950	₩48,800	₩21,400
Market cap	₩613B	₩226B	₩313B	₩547B	₩240B
P/E	14.7×	1,980.6×	—	9.0×	—
P/B	1.5×	0.6×	0.8×	1.4×	0.7×
P/S	1.2×	0.5×	0.6×	0.6×	0.4×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
HD Hyundai Energy Solutions	17.7×	2.3×	1.8×	—	0.0%
SK hynix	5.8×	3.5×	4.9×	—	0.2%
DB HiTek	11.7×	1.7×	2.6×	—	0.9%
Fadu	—	35.2×	12.3×	—	0.0%
Hana Micron	13.1×	4.1×	1.1×	—	0.2%
Jeju Semiconductor	9.2×	4.7×	3.1×	—	0.0%
SFA Semicon	—	2.8×	3.0×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	10.4×	3.8×	3.1×	—	0.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HD Hyundai Energy Solutions / HD현대에너지솔루션 / 322000 / KRX:322000

Source: KRX statistical information