HD Hyundai Heavy IndustriesHD현대중공업
329180 · KOSPI · ₩HDHHI · HD현대중공업
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩196,630
vs the current price (₩274,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩16T
- Equity value
- ₩21T
- WACC
- 8.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩94,907
- −65.4%
- Base
- ₩196,630
- −28.2%
- Bull
- ₩364,474
- +33.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.7%).
Revenue growth
- 24.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 13.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 3.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.76
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.64, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩22T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩4T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩329B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩253,000
- Shares
- 104,961,225
- Share price
- ₩274,000
- Market cap
- ₩29T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩12T | ₩14T | ₩18T | ₩27T | ₩33T | ₩37T | ₩40T | ₩41T |
| Growth | 32.3% | 21.1% | 21.4% | 24.8% | 19.3% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩179B | ₩705B | ₩2T | ₩1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T |
| EBIT margin | 1.5% | 4.9% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩130B | ₩511B | ₩1.5T | ₩732B | ₩873B | ₩994B | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩791B | ₩944B | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
| − Capital spending | ₩514B | ₩497B | ₩541B | ₩982B | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T |
| − Working capital | ₩1.3T | −₩1.7T | ₩186B | −₩542B | −₩527B | −₩452B | −₩311B | −₩121B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.1T | ₩941B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.924 | 0.854 | 0.790 | 0.730 | 0.675 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩1T | ₩1T | ₩938B | ₩809B | ₩635B |
Terminal value ₩18T, worth ₩12T today: 73% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩100,445 a share)Now 2.73× | ₩206,2792.05× | ₩278,7852.78× | ₩872,4588.69× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | ₩197,416 | ₩210,480 | ₩226,088 | ₩245,056 | ₩268,586 |
| 7.7% | ₩185,972 | ₩197,034 | ₩210,066 | ₩225,636 | ₩244,556 |
| 8.2% | ₩176,115 | ₩185,596 | ₩196,630 | ₩209,627 | ₩225,156 |
| 8.7% | ₩167,537 | ₩175,745 | ₩185,200 | ₩196,204 | ₩209,165 |
| 9.2% | ₩160,003 | ₩167,173 | ₩175,358 | ₩184,785 | ₩195,757 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩29T
- Enterprise value
- ₩25T
- P/E
- 11.4×
- P/B
- 2.7×
- P/S
- 1.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.1%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩509,000 | ₩287,500 | ₩129,000 | ₩116,000 | ₩95,200 |
| Market cap | ₩53T | ₩30T | ₩14T | ₩12T | ₩10T |
| P/E | 37.7× | 48.6× | 548.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.7× | 5.3× | 2.6× | 2.3× | 1.8× |
| P/S | 3.0× | 2.1× | 1.1× | 1.3× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 0.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries | 11.4× | 2.7× | 1.3× | — | 2.1% |
| Hanwha Ocean | 7.4× | 2.0× | 1.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Heavy Industries | 24.7× | 2.9× | 1.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Daehan Shipbuilding | 4.4× | 1.1× | 1.0× | — | 0.7% |
| Sejin Heavy Industries | 6.2× | 1.6× | 1.0× | — | 3.2% |
| Hyundai Hyms | 13.8× | 1.3× | 1.3× | — | 1.3% |
| Inhwa Precision | 11.6× | 0.8× | 2.6× | 14.8× | 2.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 9.5× | 1.5× | 1.1× | 14.8× | 1.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries / HD현대중공업 / 329180 / KRX:329180
Source: KRX statistical information