HD Hyundai Heavy Industries

329180 · KOSPI · ₩HDHHI · HD현대중공업

₩274,000▲ ₩2,000 (0.74%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩196,630

vs the current price (₩274,000)

Enterprise value
₩16T
Equity value
₩21T
WACC
8.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩94,907
−65.4%
Base
₩196,630
−28.2%
Bull
₩364,474
+33.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 24.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 13.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -10%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.76

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.64, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩22T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩4T
+ Stakes and investments
₩329B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩253,000
Shares
104,961,225
Share price
₩274,000
Market cap
₩29T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩12T₩14T₩18T₩27T₩33T₩37T₩40T₩41T
Growth32.3%21.1%21.4%24.8%19.3%13.9%8.4%3.0%
EBIT₩179B₩705B₩2T₩1T₩1.2T₩1.4T₩1.5T₩1.5T
EBIT margin1.5%4.9%11.6%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
After-tax EBIT₩130B₩511B₩1.5T₩732B₩873B₩994B₩1.1T₩1.1T
+ Depreciation———₩791B₩944B₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T
− Capital spending₩514B₩497B₩541B₩982B₩1.2T₩1.3T₩1.4T₩1.5T
− Working capital₩1.3T−₩1.7T₩186B−₩542B−₩527B−₩452B−₩311B−₩121B
Free cash flow———₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.1T₩941B
Discount factor———0.9240.8540.7900.7300.675
Present value———₩1T₩1T₩938B₩809B₩635B

Terminal value ₩18T, worth ₩12T today: 73% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩100,445 a share)Now 2.73×₩206,2792.05×₩278,7852.78×₩872,4588.69×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.2%₩197,416₩210,480₩226,088₩245,056₩268,586
7.7%₩185,972₩197,034₩210,066₩225,636₩244,556
8.2%₩176,115₩185,596₩196,630₩209,627₩225,156
8.7%₩167,537₩175,745₩185,200₩196,204₩209,165
9.2%₩160,003₩167,173₩175,358₩184,785₩195,757

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩29T
Enterprise value
₩25T
P/E
11.4×
P/B
2.7×
P/S
1.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩509,000₩287,500₩129,000₩116,000₩95,200
Market cap₩53T₩30T₩14T₩12T₩10T
P/E37.7×48.6×548.5×——
P/B5.7×5.3×2.6×2.3×1.8×
P/S3.0×2.1×1.1×1.3×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.1%0.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries11.4×2.7×1.3×—2.1%
Hanwha Ocean7.4×2.0×1.0×—0.0%
Samsung Heavy Industries24.7×2.9×1.2×—0.0%
Daehan Shipbuilding4.4×1.1×1.0×—0.7%
Sejin Heavy Industries6.2×1.6×1.0×—3.2%
Hyundai Hyms13.8×1.3×1.3×—1.3%
Inhwa Precision11.6×0.8×2.6×14.8×2.4%
Similar companies (median)9.5×1.5×1.1×14.8×1.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries / HD현대중공업 / 329180 / KRX:329180

Source: KRX statistical information