Lotte Reit롯데리츠
330590 · KOSPI · ₩330590 · 롯데리츠
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.1T
- Equity value
- −₩426B
- WACC
- 5.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Or revenue growth +22.5 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Today's P/E is 59.9× against a typical 72.1× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩1,071
- −74.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (62.2%).
Revenue growth
- 7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 62.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 29.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩75B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩1.5T
- Shares
- 288,968,884
- Share price
- ₩4,245
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩59B | ₩66B | ₩71B | ₩80B | ₩85B | ₩89B | ₩92B | ₩95B |
| Growth | 2.6% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩36B | ₩42B | ₩46B | ₩50B | ₩53B | ₩55B | ₩57B | ₩59B |
| EBIT margin | 60.8% | 64.0% | 65.3% | 62.2% | 62.2% | 62.2% | 62.2% | 62.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩26B | ₩30B | ₩34B | ₩36B | ₩38B | ₩40B | ₩42B | ₩43B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.9B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩3.2B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.6B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.8B |
| − Working capital | ₩1T | −₩16B | ₩21B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.2B | ₩1B | ₩814M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩34B | ₩36B | ₩38B | ₩40B | ₩41B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.948 | 0.899 | 0.852 | 0.808 | 0.766 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩32B | ₩32B | ₩32B | ₩32B | ₩32B |
Terminal value ₩1.2T, worth ₩948B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,857 a share)Now 1.10× | ₩3,3410.87× | ₩3,8431.00× | ₩5,3011.37× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩71 a share)Now 59.9× | ₩3,97856.1× | ₩5,11072.1× | ₩6,44690.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | — | — | ₩97 | ₩1,335 | ₩3,417 |
| 5.0% | — | — | — | — | ₩1,192 |
| 5.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
- Enterprise value
- ₩2.8T
- P/E
- 59.9×
- P/B
- 1.1×
- P/S
- 16.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.8%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,960 | ₩3,050 | ₩3,155 | ₩3,990 | ₩5,550 |
| Market cap | ₩1.1T | ₩881B | ₩912B | ₩1.2T | ₩1.6T |
| P/E | 58.3× | 83.0× | 286.9× | 81.7× | 87.1× |
| P/B | 1.0× | 0.8× | 0.9× | 1.0× | 1.4× |
| P/S | 16.1× | 13.4× | 15.3× | 19.9× | 28.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 3.0% | 3.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lotte Reit | 59.9× | 1.1× | 16.5× | — | 2.8% |
| SK Reit | 49.3× | 0.8× | 22.7× | — | 1.3% |
| Hanwha Reit | 68.1× | 1.4× | 16.7× | 45.4× | 2.5% |
| ESR Kendall Square Reit | 1,176.5× | 0.7× | 11.6× | 73.4× | 4.6% |
| Shinhan Alpha REIT | 98.1× | 1.2× | 8.0× | 34.4× | 3.0% |
| SamsungFN Reit | 148.7× | 1.1× | 37.3× | — | 1.5% |
| Koramco Life Infra Reit | 71.6× | 0.8× | 8.9× | 14.6× | 4.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 84.9× | 1.0× | 14.1× | 39.9× | 2.8% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Lotte Reit / 롯데리츠 / 330590 / KRX:330590
Source: KRX statistical information