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Celemics

331920 · KOSDAQ · ₩331920 · 셀레믹스

₩9,220▲ ₩610 (7.08%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩860

vs the current price (₩9,220)

Enterprise value
−₩11B
Equity value
₩9.6B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 91% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from −87.7% to −28.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,080
−88.3%
Base
₩860
−90.7%
Bull
₩550
−94.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩5.2B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩21B
− Minority interests
₩15,089
Shares
11,181,555
Share price
₩9,220
Market cap
₩103B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩6.6B₩6.7B₩5.8B₩4.7B₩4.4B₩4.2B₩4.2B₩4.3B
Growth−24.6%2.1%−14.2%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩5.8B−₩1.9B−₩3.3B−₩940M−₩877M−₩846M−₩844M−₩870M
EBIT margin−87.7%−28.3%−57.6%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩4.2B−₩1.4B−₩2.4B−₩681M−₩636M−₩613M−₩612M−₩630M
+ Depreciation———₩99M₩92M₩89M₩89M₩91M
− Capital spending₩219M₩117M₩166M₩122M₩114M₩110M₩110M₩113M
− Working capital−₩2.3B−₩2.4B−₩2.2B−₩209M−₩126M−₩61M−₩3.4M₩51M
Free cash flow———−₩496M−₩532M−₩573M−₩630M−₩703M
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———−₩462M−₩461M−₩463M−₩473M−₩492M

Terminal value −₩13B, worth −₩8.9B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,718 a share)Now 3.39×₩3,3521.23×₩8,6333.18×₩16,6646.13×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩845₩747₩626₩475₩279
6.9%₩933₩852₩755₩635₩485
7.4%₩1,008₩940₩860₩763₩644
7.9%₩1,071₩1,014₩947₩867₩771
8.4%₩1,126₩1,077₩1,020₩953₩874

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩103B
Enterprise value
₩82B
P/E
—
P/B
3.4×
P/S
19.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,715₩3,275₩4,230₩5,800₩15,350
Market cap₩30B₩37B₩47B₩65B₩172B
P/E—3.0×———
P/B1.3×1.3×3.0×3.5×7.3×
P/S5.3×5.5×7.2×7.4×21.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Celemics—3.4×19.7×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.1×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.8×2.4×8.9×—0.0%
Alteogen78.8×28.4×59.9×—0.1%
Yuhan24.8×2.5×2.6×32.5×0.8%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.6×5.7×6.8×—0.0%
HLB—15.4×54.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.8×6.7×11.5×32.5×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Celemics / 셀레믹스 / 331920 / KRX:331920

Source: KRX statistical information