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Doosan Fuel Cell

336260 · KOSPI · ₩336260 · 두산퓨얼셀

₩30,000▼ ₩1,050 (3.38%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩626B
Equity value
−₩799B
WACC
9.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩30,000, the model needs an operating margin of 55.3% every year (it uses −5.2%).
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩483B, operating profit −₩81B (−16.8% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩926B, operating profit ₩89B (9.6% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Margins ranged from −23.2% to 4.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−5.2%).

Revenue growth

  • 13.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 10.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -5.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 22.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 28.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 1.09

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩416B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩191B
+ Stakes and investments
₩17B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
81,844,226
incl. 16,350,500 preferred
Share price
₩30,000
Market cap
₩2.1T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩261B₩412B₩455B₩471B₩522B₩565B₩597B₩615B
Growth−16.4%57.8%10.4%13.4%10.8%8.2%5.6%3.0%
EBIT₩1.6B−₩1.7B−₩106B−₩25B−₩27B−₩29B−₩31B−₩32B
EBIT margin0.6%−0.4%−23.2%−5.2%−5.2%−5.2%−5.2%−5.2%
After-tax EBIT₩1.2B−₩1.3B−₩77B−₩18B−₩20B−₩21B−₩22B−₩23B
+ Depreciation———₩107B₩118B₩128B₩135B₩139B
− Capital spending₩115B₩72B₩106B₩133B₩148B₩160B₩169B₩174B
− Working capital₩2.9B−₩139B−₩49B₩22B₩20B₩17B₩13B₩7.2B
Free cash flow———−₩67B−₩70B−₩71B−₩69B−₩65B
Discount factor———0.9130.8340.7620.6960.635
Present value———−₩61B−₩58B−₩54B−₩48B−₩42B

Terminal value −₩572B, worth −₩363B today: 58% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,661 a share)Now 8.19×₩10,2372.80×₩17,4734.77×₩30,0008.19×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
8.5%—————
9.0%—————
9.5%—————
10.0%—————
10.5%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩2T
Enterprise value
₩2.1T
P/E
—
P/B
6.6×
P/S
4.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩28,850₩15,960₩23,200₩29,350₩48,000
Market cap₩1.9T₩1T₩1.5T₩1.9T₩3.1T
P/E———497.5×361.5×
P/B5.1×2.1×3.0×3.7×6.1×
P/S4.2×2.5×5.8×6.2×8.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Doosan Fuel Cell—6.6×4.7×—0.0%
LS Electric61.1×11.2×4.2×37.8×0.0%
Hyosung Heavy Industries30.5×6.9×2.8×—0.4%
HD Hyundai Electric18.7×7.0×3.7×—0.0%
Gaon Cable110.9×13.4×2.5×57.9×0.0%
Sanil Electric26.6×7.2×8.2×—0.8%
Taihan Cable & Solution—2.1×1.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)30.5×7.1×3.2×47.8×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Doosan Fuel Cell / 두산퓨얼셀 / 336260 / KRX:336260

Source: KRX statistical information