Ask Warren

Senko

347000 · KOSDAQ · ₩347000 · 센코

₩1,805▲ ₩52 (2.97%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,166

vs the current price (₩1,805)

Enterprise value
₩27B
Equity value
₩44B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 35% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,805, the model needs an operating margin of 11.6% every year (it uses 7.0%).
  • Or revenue growth +18.5 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • 71% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 9.4× against a typical 40.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩790
−56.2%
Base
₩1,166
−35.4%
Bull
₩1,838
+1.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 7.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 9.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 19.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩42B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩17B
+ Stakes and investments
₩18M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
37,810,846
Share price
₩1,805
Market cap
₩68B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩34B₩36B₩37B₩41B₩40B₩40B₩41B₩42B
Growth−16.8%5.6%2.4%−3.4%−1.8%−0.2%1.4%3.0%
EBIT₩2.2B₩2.7B₩2.5B₩2.9B₩2.8B₩2.8B₩2.8B₩2.9B
EBIT margin6.6%7.6%6.8%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%
After-tax EBIT₩1.6B₩2B₩1.8B₩2.1B₩2B₩2B₩2.1B₩2.1B
+ Depreciation———₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.3B
− Capital spending₩9.3B₩464M₩322M₩4B₩4B₩4B₩4B₩4.1B
− Working capital−₩4.6B₩805M₩7.6B−₩286M−₩146M−₩16M₩112M₩243M
Free cash flow———₩1.5B₩1.4B₩1.2B₩1.1B₩1B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩1.4B₩1.2B₩1B₩858M₩734M

Terminal value ₩31B, worth ₩22B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,599 a share)Now 1.13×₩2,2081.38×₩4,1492.59×₩5,4503.41×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩192 a share)Now 9.41×₩1,96010.2×₩7,77540.5×₩11,64960.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩104 a share)Now 17.4×₩1,06010.2×₩4,20740.5×₩6,30360.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩1,222₩1,275₩1,339₩1,420₩1,525
6.8%₩1,153₩1,194₩1,244₩1,304₩1,381
7.3%₩1,094₩1,127₩1,166₩1,213₩1,271
7.8%₩1,044₩1,071₩1,102₩1,139₩1,184
8.3%₩1,001₩1,023₩1,049₩1,078₩1,113

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩68B
Enterprise value
₩51B
P/E
9.4×
P/B
1.1×
P/S
1.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,210₩1,908₩2,755₩3,190₩4,115
Market cap₩84B₩72B₩104B₩121B₩156B
P/E16.8×28.7×—123.1×58.1×
P/B1.4×1.7×2.5×2.8×3.8×
P/S2.3×2.0×3.1×3.0×5.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Senko9.4×1.1×1.6×—0.0%
TSE23.5×5.2×4.3×—0.2%
Kctech19.8×3.0×3.6×15.3×0.5%
Classys12.4×3.1×4.6×9.7×3.8%
Park Systems66.3×4.5×7.9×—0.2%
DI37.8×5.2×2.3×—0.6%
LivsMed—6.1×19.4×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)23.5×4.8×4.5×12.5×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Senko / 센코 / 347000 / KRX:347000

Source: KRX statistical information