Kostecsys코스텍시스
355150 · KOSDAQ · ₩355150 · 코스텍시스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩13B
- Equity value
- −₩34B
- WACC
- 8.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩14,940, the model needs an operating margin of 48.7% every year (it uses −1.7%).
- Margins ranged from −13.3% to 1.2% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−1.7%).
Revenue growth
- 14.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (14.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 11.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (14.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (14.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (14.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (14.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -1.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.95
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.92, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩19B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩22B
- Shares
- 7,797,350
- Share price
- ₩14,940
- Market cap
- ₩116B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩12B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩22B | ₩25B | ₩27B | ₩29B | ₩30B |
| Growth | — | 23.1% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩1.3B | −₩1.9B | ₩184M | −₩381M | −₩425M | −₩463M | −₩491M | −₩505M |
| EBIT margin | −11.4% | −13.3% | 1.2% | −1.7% | −1.7% | −1.7% | −1.7% | −1.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩957M | −₩1.4B | ₩134M | −₩276M | −₩308M | −₩336M | −₩356M | −₩366M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩672M | ₩751M | ₩818M | ₩866M | ₩892M |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩895M | ₩1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B |
| − Working capital | — | −₩114M | −₩5.7B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.1B | ₩891M | ₩643M | ₩346M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩1.7B | −₩1.6B | −₩1.5B | −₩1.3B | −₩1B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.922 | 0.849 | 0.783 | 0.721 | 0.665 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩1.5B | −₩1.4B | −₩1.2B | −₩929M | −₩671M |
Terminal value −₩11B, worth −₩7.2B today: 56% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,782 a share)Now 3.95× | ₩8,5982.27× | ₩15,2834.04× | ₩28,4407.52× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩116B
- Enterprise value
- ₩138B
- P/E
- 55.2×
- P/B
- 4.0×
- P/S
- 6.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩13,500 | ₩5,080 | ₩11,150 |
| Market cap | ₩105B | ₩40B | ₩87B |
| P/E | — | — | — |
| P/B | 4.7× | 1.8× | 3.4× |
| P/S | 6.9× | 2.8× | 7.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kostecsys | 55.2× | 4.0× | 6.0× | — | 0.0% |
| SK hynix | 6.0× | 3.7× | 5.2× | — | 0.2% |
| DB HiTek | 11.9× | 1.7× | 2.7× | — | 0.9% |
| Fadu | — | 37.7× | 13.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Hana Micron | 13.8× | 4.3× | 1.1× | — | 0.2% |
| Jeju Semiconductor | 9.5× | 4.9× | 3.3× | — | 0.0% |
| SFA Semicon | — | 3.0× | 3.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.7× | 4.0× | 3.2× | — | 0.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Kostecsys / 코스텍시스 / 355150 / KRX:355150
Source: KRX statistical information