ESR Kendall Square ReitESR켄달스퀘어리츠
365550 · KOSPI · ₩365550 · ESR켄달스퀘어리츠
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- ₩783B
- Equity value
- −₩435B
- WACC
- 5.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Or revenue growth +22.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩455
- −84.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (46.0%).
Revenue growth
- 6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 46%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 18.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- -4.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.14, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩64B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩1.4T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩191B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 246,089,000
- Share price
- ₩3,015
- Market cap
- ₩742B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩53B | ₩57B | ₩60B | ₩68B | ₩72B | ₩76B | ₩79B | ₩81B |
| Growth | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩24B | ₩27B | ₩26B | ₩31B | ₩33B | ₩35B | ₩36B | ₩37B |
| EBIT margin | 45.7% | 46.7% | 43.4% | 46.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩18B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩23B | ₩24B | ₩25B | ₩26B | ₩27B |
| + Depreciation | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩34M | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩15B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩2.7B | ₩2.9B | ₩3B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.2B |
| − Working capital | −₩7.3B | −₩11B | ₩11B | −₩201M | −₩186M | −₩166M | −₩139M | −₩111M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩33B | ₩35B | ₩36B | ₩38B | ₩39B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.950 | 0.903 | 0.858 | 0.816 | 0.775 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩30B |
Terminal value ₩810B, worth ₩628B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩4,472 a share)Now 0.67× | ₩3,4400.77× | ₩4,2620.95× | ₩10,0072.24× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | — | — | — | ₩738 | ₩2,845 |
| 4.7% | — | — | — | — | ₩637 |
| 5.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩742B
- Enterprise value
- ₩2.2T
- P/E
- 1,180.4×
- P/B
- 0.7×
- P/S
- 11.6×
- EV/EBITDA
- 73.5×
- Dividend yield
- 4.5%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩4,265 | ₩4,255 | ₩3,650 | ₩3,990 | ₩6,330 |
| Market cap | ₩1T | ₩1T | ₩898B | ₩982B | ₩1.6T |
| P/E | — | 290.8× | 75.8× | 76.9× | 164.2× |
| P/B | 0.9× | 1.0× | 0.8× | 0.9× | 2.2× |
| P/S | 17.6× | 18.4× | 17.0× | 20.0× | 51.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 95.0× | 55.4× | 51.3× | 55.4× | 99.5× |
| Dividend yield | 3.2% | 3.2% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESR Kendall Square Reit | 1,180.4× | 0.7× | 11.6× | 73.5× | 4.5% |
| SK Reit | 50.0× | 0.8× | 23.0× | — | 1.3% |
| Lotte Reit | 59.8× | 1.1× | 16.4× | — | 2.8% |
| Hanwha Reit | 68.0× | 1.4× | 16.6× | 45.3× | 2.5% |
| Shinhan Alpha REIT | 98.0× | 1.2× | 8.0× | 34.4× | 3.0% |
| SamsungFN Reit | 148.2× | 1.1× | 37.2× | — | 1.5% |
| Koramco Life Infra Reit | 73.7× | 0.8× | 9.2× | 15.0× | 4.3% |
| Similar companies (median) | 70.8× | 1.1× | 16.5× | 34.4× | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: ESR Kendall Square Reit / ESR켄달스퀘어리츠 / 365550 / KRX:365550
Source: KRX statistical information