Refine리파인
377450 · KOSDAQ · ₩377450 · 리파인
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩15,139
vs the current price (₩13,900)
- Enterprise value
- ₩256B
- Equity value
- ₩262B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩10,659
- −23.3%
- Base
- ₩15,139
- +8.9%
- Bull
- ₩22,420
- +61.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (32.3%).
Revenue growth
- 3.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 32.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 8.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩58B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩6.2B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩47M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 17,330,000
- Share price
- ₩13,900
- Market cap
- ₩241B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩66B | ₩68B | ₩62B | ₩60B | ₩63B | ₩65B | ₩67B | ₩69B |
| Growth | 20.7% | 2.1% | −9.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩23B | ₩21B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩20B | ₩21B | ₩22B | ₩22B |
| EBIT margin | 33.9% | 30.2% | 30.8% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩16B | ₩15B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩16B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩4B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.5B | ₩4.6B |
| − Capital spending | ₩6B | ₩10B | ₩595M | ₩5B | ₩5.2B | ₩5.4B | ₩5.5B | ₩5.7B |
| − Working capital | ₩6.7B | −₩10B | ₩158B | ₩884M | ₩869M | ₩850M | ₩827M | ₩800M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩10B | ₩10B |
Terminal value ₩288B, worth ₩203B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩13,220 a share)Now 1.05× | ₩11,8590.90× | ₩14,6801.11× | ₩19,8431.50× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩566 a share)Now 24.6× | ₩4,2377.48× | ₩5,94910.5× | ₩9,44516.7× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,117 a share)Now 12.4× | ₩8,3587.48× | ₩11,73410.5× | ₩18,63116.7× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩15,886 | ₩17,108 | ₩18,612 | ₩20,506 | ₩22,967 |
| 6.8% | ₩14,522 | ₩15,507 | ₩16,695 | ₩18,156 | ₩19,997 |
| 7.3% | ₩13,374 | ₩14,182 | ₩15,139 | ₩16,293 | ₩17,713 |
| 7.8% | ₩12,395 | ₩13,066 | ₩13,850 | ₩14,780 | ₩15,902 |
| 8.3% | ₩11,550 | ₩12,114 | ₩12,765 | ₩13,527 | ₩14,431 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩241B
- Enterprise value
- ₩235B
- P/E
- 24.6×
- P/B
- 1.1×
- P/S
- 4.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.9%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩12,330 | ₩12,820 | ₩8,700 | ₩8,900 | ₩14,350 |
| Market cap | ₩214B | ₩222B | ₩151B | ₩154B | ₩249B |
| P/E | 23.6× | 10.8× | 7.0× | 8.7× | 14.7× |
| P/B | 1.0× | 1.3× | 1.0× | 1.1× | 1.8× |
| P/S | 3.5× | 3.3× | 2.3× | 2.8× | 4.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.1% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refine | 24.6× | 1.1× | 4.1× | — | 1.9% |
| NAVER | 13.1× | 0.9× | 2.0× | — | 1.5% |
| Kakao | 37.7× | 1.1× | 1.6× | — | 0.3% |
| Daou Technology | 1.9× | 0.4× | 0.0× | — | 5.6% |
| NICE Information Service | 11.3× | 2.0× | 1.6× | 6.6× | 3.0% |
| Kinx | 24.4× | 2.7× | 3.5× | 10.7× | 0.5% |
| Cafe24 | 11.5× | 1.5× | 1.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 12.3× | 1.3× | 1.6× | 6.6× | 1.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Refine / 리파인 / 377450 / KRX:377450
Source: KRX statistical information