Oncocross온코크로스
382150 · KOSDAQ · ₩382150 · 온코크로스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩884
vs the current price (₩3,145)
- Enterprise value
- −₩1.8B
- Equity value
- ₩12B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 72% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Margins ranged from −7,440.6% to −649.6% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩909
- −71.1%
- Base
- ₩884
- −71.9%
- Bull
- ₩849
- −73.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (101.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (101.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (101.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (101.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (101.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 97 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.25, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩395M
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩13B
- Shares
- 13,046,354
- Share price
- ₩3,145
- Market cap
- ₩41B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩92M | ₩1.1B | ₩370M | ₩494M | ₩591M | ₩673M | ₩731M | ₩753M |
| Growth | — | 1,071.5% | −65.4% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩6.8B | −₩7B | −₩8.8B | −₩99M | −₩118M | −₩135M | −₩146M | −₩151M |
| EBIT margin | −7,440.6% | −649.6% | −2,383.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩4.9B | −₩5B | −₩6.4B | −₩72M | −₩86M | −₩98M | −₩106M | −₩109M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩15M | ₩18M | ₩20M | ₩22M | ₩23M |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩20M | ₩24M | ₩27M | ₩29M | ₩30M |
| − Working capital | — | ₩4.8B | −₩6B | −₩9.9M | −₩9.6M | −₩8.3M | −₩5.7M | −₩2.2M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩67M | −₩82M | −₩96M | −₩108M | −₩114M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩62M | −₩71M | −₩78M | −₩81M | −₩80M |
Terminal value −₩2.1B, worth −₩1.5B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩878 | ₩866 | ₩851 | ₩833 | ₩808 |
| 6.9% | ₩891 | ₩881 | ₩870 | ₩855 | ₩837 |
| 7.4% | ₩902 | ₩894 | ₩884 | ₩873 | ₩858 |
| 7.9% | ₩911 | ₩905 | ₩897 | ₩887 | ₩876 |
| 8.4% | ₩919 | ₩914 | ₩907 | ₩899 | ₩890 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩41B
- Enterprise value
- ₩28B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 3.0×
- P/S
- 103.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩9,580 | ₩6,340 |
| Market cap | ₩125B | ₩83B |
| P/E | — | — |
| P/B | 9.3× | 4.0× |
| P/S | 337.4× | 77.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — |
Loading data for this company — check back soon
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oncocross | — | 3.0× | 103.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Oncocross / 온코크로스 / 382150 / KRX:382150
Source: KRX statistical information