Ask Warren

Ecopro HN

383310 · KOSDAQ · ₩383310 · 에코프로에이치엔

₩23,500▼ ₩500 (2.08%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩7,473

vs the current price (₩23,500)

Enterprise value
₩117B
Equity value
₩157B
WACC
9.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 68% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩23,500, the model needs an operating margin of 41.8% every year (it uses 13.5%).
  • Or revenue growth +46.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from 8.3% to 19.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 33.1× against a typical 41.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩5,632
−76.0%
Base
₩7,473
−68.2%
Bull
₩10,418
−55.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 13.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 18.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 22.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.97

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.96, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩154B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩37B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2.1B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
20,974,932
Share price
₩23,500
Market cap
₩493B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩229B₩235B₩141B₩138B₩129B₩125B₩124B₩128B
Growth4.9%2.4%−39.8%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩42B₩24B₩12B₩19B₩17B₩17B₩17B₩17B
EBIT margin18.2%10.3%8.3%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%
After-tax EBIT₩30B₩18B₩8.5B₩14B₩13B₩12B₩12B₩13B
+ Depreciation———₩25B₩23B₩23B₩23B₩23B
− Capital spending₩20B₩80B₩35B₩31B₩29B₩28B₩28B₩29B
− Working capital₩31B₩45B−₩54B−₩6.2B−₩3.7B−₩1.8B−₩100M₩1.5B
Free cash flow———₩13B₩11B₩8.4B₩6.7B₩5.3B
Discount factor———0.9150.8360.7650.7000.640
Present value———₩12B₩8.8B₩6.4B₩4.7B₩3.4B

Terminal value ₩128B, worth ₩82B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩14,790 a share)Now 1.59×₩25,6531.73×₩163,94511.1×₩254,76517.2×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩710 a share)Now 33.1×₩17,59824.8×₩29,74041.9×₩44,54362.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩105 a share)Now 223.6×₩2,60424.8×₩4,40041.9×₩6,59062.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
8.3%₩7,879₩8,092₩8,337₩8,622₩8,960
8.8%₩7,497₩7,673₩7,873₩8,104₩8,372
9.3%₩7,161₩7,308₩7,473₩7,661₩7,877
9.8%₩6,864₩6,986₩7,124₩7,278₩7,455
10.3%₩6,599₩6,702₩6,817₩6,945₩7,090

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩493B
Enterprise value
₩455B
P/E
33.1×
P/B
1.6×
P/S
3.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.9%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩24,050₩32,500₩64,327₩42,402₩72,181
Market cap₩504B₩682B₩1.3T₩889B₩1.5T
P/E38.2×31.6×40.2×27.5×131.8×
P/B1.7×2.3×12.2×10.3×24.1×
P/S3.6×2.9×5.9×4.1×16.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.8%0.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Ecopro HN33.1×1.6×3.2×—0.9%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.5×0.3×—0.0%
Hanwha6.1×0.4×0.1×—1.4%
SKC—1.8×1.7×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×9.0×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.2×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.2×0.4×0.4×9.0×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Ecopro HN / 에코프로에이치엔 / 383310 / KRX:383310

Source: KRX statistical information