3billion쓰리빌리언
394800 · KOSDAQ · ₩394800 · 쓰리빌리언
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩89B
- Equity value
- −₩88B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩5,580, the model needs an operating margin of 61.0% every year (it uses −20.0%).
- 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (102.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (102.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (102.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (102.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (102.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 27.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 34%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 102 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩14B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩1B
- Shares
- 31,822,553
- Share price
- ₩5,580
- Market cap
- ₩178B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩5.8B | ₩12B | ₩18B | ₩21B | ₩24B | ₩26B | ₩27B |
| Growth | — | 102.8% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩7.4B | −₩5.9B | −₩3.6B | −₩4.3B | −₩4.9B | −₩5.3B | −₩5.4B |
| EBIT margin | −128.5% | −50.3% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩5.4B | −₩4.3B | −₩2.6B | −₩3.1B | −₩3.5B | −₩3.8B | −₩3.9B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | ₩4.9B | ₩5.8B | ₩6.6B | ₩7.2B | ₩7.4B |
| − Capital spending | ₩2.8B | ₩2.3B | ₩6.1B | ₩7.2B | ₩8.3B | ₩9B | ₩9.2B |
| − Working capital | — | −₩3.3B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.2B | ₩826M | ₩316M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | −₩5.2B | −₩5.9B | −₩6.4B | −₩6.4B | −₩6.1B |
| Discount factor | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | −₩4.9B | −₩5.1B | −₩5.1B | −₩4.8B | −₩4.3B |
Terminal value −₩92B, worth −₩65B today: 73% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩178B
- Enterprise value
- ₩174B
- P/E
- 56.0×
- P/B
- 6.0×
- P/S
- 12.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩18,230 | ₩5,120 |
| Market cap | ₩580B | ₩163B |
| P/E | — | — |
| P/B | 24.6× | 5.8× |
| P/S | 49.5× | 28.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3billion | 56.0× | 6.0× | 12.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.1× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.8× | 2.4× | 8.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 78.8× | 28.4× | 59.9× | — | 0.1% |
| Yuhan | 24.8× | 2.5× | 2.6× | 32.5× | 0.8% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.6× | 5.7× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| HLB | — | 15.4× | 54.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.8× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 32.5× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: 3billion / 쓰리빌리언 / 394800 / KRX:394800
Source: KRX statistical information