SK ReitSK리츠
395400 · KOSPI · ₩395400 · SK리츠
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,524
vs the current price (₩5,370)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.5T
- Equity value
- ₩459B
- WACC
- 6.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 72% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Or revenue growth +14.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Margins ranged from 67.6% to 91.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩8
- −99.8%
- Base
- ₩1,524
- −71.6%
- Bull
- ₩4,154
- −22.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (70.0%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (34.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (34.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (34.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (34.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (34.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 70%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (FY 2025)
- ₩70B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩942B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩12B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩81B
- Shares
- 301,017,620
- Share price
- ₩5,370
- Market cap
- ₩1.6T
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩53B | ₩52B | ₩70B | ₩88B | ₩105B | ₩120B | ₩130B | ₩134B |
| Growth | 81.5% | −0.4% | 34.2% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩36B | ₩35B | ₩65B | ₩62B | ₩74B | ₩84B | ₩91B | ₩94B |
| EBIT margin | 68.0% | 67.6% | 91.7% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩26B | ₩26B | ₩47B | ₩45B | ₩53B | ₩61B | ₩66B | ₩68B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.6B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.6B | ₩3.9B | ₩4B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩3.5B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.8B | ₩5.2B | ₩5.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩50B | −₩389B | −₩272B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.7B | −₩1.5B | −₩1B | −₩390M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩46B | ₩54B | ₩61B | ₩66B | ₩67B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.942 | 0.887 | 0.835 | 0.787 | 0.741 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩43B | ₩48B | ₩51B | ₩52B | ₩50B |
Terminal value ₩1.7T, worth ₩1.2T today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩6,443 a share)Now 0.83× | ₩5,4800.85× | ₩8,1281.26× | ₩13,3122.07× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | ₩1,695 | ₩2,298 | ₩3,090 | ₩4,179 | ₩5,766 |
| 5.7% | ₩1,144 | ₩1,609 | ₩2,201 | ₩2,979 | ₩4,048 |
| 6.2% | ₩698 | ₩1,067 | ₩1,524 | ₩2,106 | ₩2,870 |
| 6.7% | ₩332 | ₩630 | ₩993 | ₩1,442 | ₩2,013 |
| 7.2% | ₩25 | ₩271 | ₩564 | ₩920 | ₩1,361 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.6T
- Enterprise value
- ₩2.6T
- P/E
- 50.0×
- P/B
- 0.8×
- P/S
- 23.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩5,790 | ₩4,425 | ₩3,980 | ₩5,510 | ₩6,160 |
| Market cap | ₩1.7T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.9T |
| P/E | 53.9× | 1,159.1× | 334.1× | 444.4× | 211.3× |
| P/B | 0.9× | 1.1× | 1.0× | 1.7× | 2.4× |
| P/S | 24.8× | 25.4× | 22.8× | 57.2× | 99.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.2% | 1.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Reit | 50.0× | 0.8× | 23.0× | — | 1.3% |
| Lotte Reit | 59.8× | 1.1× | 16.4× | — | 2.8% |
| Hanwha Reit | 68.0× | 1.4× | 16.6× | 45.3× | 2.5% |
| ESR Kendall Square Reit | 1,180.4× | 0.7× | 11.6× | 73.5× | 4.5% |
| Shinhan Alpha REIT | 98.0× | 1.2× | 8.0× | 34.4× | 3.0% |
| SamsungFN Reit | 148.2× | 1.1× | 37.2× | — | 1.5% |
| Koramco Life Infra Reit | 73.7× | 0.8× | 9.2× | 15.0× | 4.3% |
| Similar companies (median) | 85.9× | 1.1× | 14.0× | 39.9× | 2.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: SK Reit / SK리츠 / 395400 / KRX:395400
Source: KRX statistical information