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AprilBio

397030 · KOSDAQ · ₩397030 · 에이프릴바이오

₩12,340▼ ₩60 (0.48%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,244

vs the current price (₩12,340)

Enterprise value
−₩2.9B
Equity value
₩89B
WACC
8.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 74% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from −5,737.2% to 61.3% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,261
−73.6%
Base
₩3,244
−73.7%
Bull
₩3,223
−73.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (229.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (229.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (229.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (229.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (229.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 25.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.85

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.77, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩725M
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩79B
+ Stakes and investments
₩13B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
27,558,782
Share price
₩12,340
Market cap
₩340B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩0₩28B₩2.2B₩907M₩1.1B₩1.2B₩1.3B₩1.4B
Growth——−92.1%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT−₩13B₩17B−₩7.3B−₩181M−₩217M−₩247M−₩268M−₩276M
EBIT margin—61.3%−334.4%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩9.7B₩12B−₩5.3B−₩131M−₩157M−₩179M−₩194M−₩200M
+ Depreciation———₩11M₩13M₩15M₩16M₩17M
− Capital spending₩53M₩297M₩42M₩14M₩16M₩19M₩20M₩21M
− Working capital−₩75B₩9.5B₩5B₩47M₩45M₩39M₩27M₩10M
Free cash flow———−₩181M−₩206M−₩222M−₩225M−₩215M
Discount factor———0.9190.8450.7770.7140.656
Present value———−₩166M−₩174M−₩172M−₩161M−₩141M

Terminal value −₩3.1B, worth −₩2.1B today: 72% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,515 a share)Now 3.51×₩12,3403.51×₩21,2336.04×₩54,82015.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.8%₩3,242₩3,235₩3,226₩3,216₩3,204
8.3%₩3,249₩3,243₩3,236₩3,228₩3,218
8.8%₩3,256₩3,250₩3,244₩3,237₩3,229
9.3%₩3,261₩3,257₩3,251₩3,245₩3,238
9.8%₩3,266₩3,262₩3,258₩3,252₩3,246

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩340B
Enterprise value
₩260B
P/E
—
P/B
3.5×
P/S
468.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

2025202420232022
Price₩54,900₩16,200₩16,850₩8,779
Market cap₩1.5T₩446B₩464B₩242B
P/E—22.3×——
P/B15.7×4.9×8.0×3.5×
P/S696.6×16.2×—1,209.7×
EV/EBITDA————
Dividend yield0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
AprilBio—3.5×468.8×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.1×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.8×2.4×8.9×—0.0%
Alteogen78.8×28.4×59.9×—0.1%
Yuhan24.8×2.5×2.6×32.5×0.8%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.6×5.7×6.8×—0.0%
HLB—15.4×54.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.8×6.7×11.5×32.5×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: AprilBio / 에이프릴바이오 / 397030 / KRX:397030

Source: KRX statistical information