Socar쏘카
403550 · KOSPI · ₩403550 · 쏘카
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩2,613
vs the current price (₩10,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩135B
- Equity value
- ₩99B
- WACC
- 7.1%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 74% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩10,000, the model needs an operating margin of 5.5% every year (it uses 1.7%).
- Or revenue growth +25.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩2,613
- −73.9%
- Bull
- ₩9,731
- −2.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.7%).
Revenue growth
- 5.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 1.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩459B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩36B
- Shares
- 37,939,942
- Share price
- ₩10,000
- Market cap
- ₩379B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩398B | ₩432B | ₩471B | ₩485B | ₩510B | ₩532B | ₩552B | ₩569B |
| Growth | 0.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩9.7B | −₩9.8B | ₩23B | ₩8.2B | ₩8.7B | ₩9.1B | ₩9.4B | ₩9.7B |
| EBIT margin | −2.4% | −2.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩7B | −₩7.1B | ₩17B | ₩6B | ₩6.3B | ₩6.6B | ₩6.8B | ₩7B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B |
| − Capital spending | ₩1.3B | ₩2.1B | ₩3.1B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.8B |
| − Working capital | −₩20B | ₩45B | ₩6B | −₩1.6B | −₩1.5B | −₩1.3B | −₩1.2B | −₩994M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩7.1B | ₩7.3B | ₩7.4B | ₩7.4B | ₩7.4B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.934 | 0.872 | 0.814 | 0.760 | 0.709 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩6.6B | ₩6.3B | ₩6B | ₩5.6B | ₩5.3B |
Terminal value ₩149B, worth ₩106B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩5,870 a share)Now 1.70× | ₩12,2622.09× | ₩16,2892.78× | ₩21,7983.71× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | ₩2,608 | ₩2,995 | ₩3,476 | ₩4,092 | ₩4,906 |
| 6.6% | ₩2,293 | ₩2,611 | ₩2,998 | ₩3,480 | ₩4,096 |
| 7.1% | ₩2,030 | ₩2,295 | ₩2,613 | ₩3,000 | ₩3,482 |
| 7.6% | ₩1,807 | ₩2,031 | ₩2,297 | ₩2,614 | ₩3,001 |
| 8.1% | ₩1,615 | ₩1,807 | ₩2,032 | ₩2,297 | ₩2,614 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩379B
- Enterprise value
- ₩403B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 1.7×
- P/S
- 0.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.9%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩11,470 | ₩18,200 | ₩15,400 | ₩21,750 |
| Market cap | ₩435B | ₩691B | ₩584B | ₩825B |
| P/E | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | 3.8× | 2.8× | 3.3× |
| P/S | 0.9× | 1.6× | 1.5× | 2.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socar | — | 1.7× | 0.8× | — | 0.9% |
| Coway | 10.7× | 1.9× | 1.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Lotte rental | 15.2× | 1.1× | 0.6× | — | 2.4% |
| Cuckoo Homesys | 3.6× | 0.4× | 0.4× | — | 5.3% |
| Q AID | — | 4.8× | 2.8× | — | 0.0% |
| AJ Networks | 3.3× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| A One Cubetech | — | — | — | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 7.1× | 1.1× | 0.6× | — | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Socar / 쏘카 / 403550 / KRX:403550
Source: KRX statistical information