HPSP

403870 · KOSDAQ · ₩403870 · HPSP

₩42,600▼ ₩3,050 (6.68%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩13,654

vs the current price (₩42,600)

Enterprise value
₩1.1T
Equity value
₩1.1T
WACC
8.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 68% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Or revenue growth +31.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 40.9× against a typical 38.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩10,152
−76.2%
Base
₩13,654
−67.9%
Bull
₩19,050
−55.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (52.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 52.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 6.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.72

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩163B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩66B
Shares
82,300,000
Share price
₩42,600
Market cap
₩3.5T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩179B₩181B₩173B₩167B₩172B₩177B₩182B₩188B
Growth12.4%1.3%−4.7%2.8%2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%
EBIT₩95B₩94B₩90B₩89B₩91B₩94B₩96B₩99B
EBIT margin53.2%51.8%52.0%52.9%52.9%52.9%52.9%52.9%
After-tax EBIT₩69B₩68B₩65B₩64B₩66B₩68B₩70B₩72B
+ Depreciation———₩11B₩11B₩11B₩12B₩12B
− Capital spending₩26B—₩2.4B₩13B₩14B₩14B₩15B₩15B
− Working capital₩139B−₩55B−₩1.1B₩1.8B₩1.9B₩2B₩2.1B₩2.2B
Free cash flow———₩60B₩61B₩63B₩65B₩67B
Discount factor———0.9260.8580.7950.7360.682
Present value———₩55B₩53B₩50B₩48B₩46B

Terminal value ₩1.2T, worth ₩807B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,809 a share)Now 11.2×₩25,6556.74×₩39,32910.3×₩53,49314.0×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,042 a share)Now 40.9×₩27,92426.8×₩40,55938.9×₩51,62249.6×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,172 a share)Now 36.4×₩31,41026.8×₩45,62238.9×₩58,06649.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.0%₩14,215₩15,150₩16,272₩17,645₩19,364
7.5%₩13,159₩13,931₩14,843₩15,939₩17,279
8.0%₩12,255₩12,901₩13,654₩14,545₩15,614
8.5%₩11,473₩12,019₩12,649₩13,385₩14,254
9.0%₩10,789₩11,256₩11,789₩12,404₩13,122

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩3.5T
Enterprise value
₩3.4T
P/E
40.9×
P/B
11.2×
P/S
21.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.2%

Over time (at each year end)

2025202420232022
Price₩33,500₩26,050₩43,850₩13,374
Market cap₩2.8T₩2.1T₩3.6T₩1.1T
P/E37.9×24.8×44.9×16.7×
P/B8.9×7.7×13.0×5.6×
P/S15.9×11.8×20.2×6.9×
EV/EBITDA————
Dividend yield1.5%2.3%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HPSP40.9×11.2×21.5×—1.2%
Doosan Enerbility193.9×4.3×2.0×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor78.4×23.3×31.6×70.6×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,058.2×13.0×34.0×2,036.0×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,137.6×53.0×156.2×—0.0%
EO Technics44.1×6.4×10.8×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,622.5×911.6×733.9×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)626.0×18.1×32.8×1,053.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HPSP / 403870 / KRX:403870

Source: KRX statistical information