HPSPHPSP
403870 · KOSDAQ · ₩403870 · HPSP
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩13,654
vs the current price (₩42,600)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.1T
- Equity value
- ₩1.1T
- WACC
- 8.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 68% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Or revenue growth +31.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Today's P/E is 40.9× against a typical 38.9× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩10,152
- −76.2%
- Base
- ₩13,654
- −67.9%
- Bull
- ₩19,050
- −55.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (52.9%).
Revenue growth
- 2.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 52.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.72
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩163B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩66B
- Shares
- 82,300,000
- Share price
- ₩42,600
- Market cap
- ₩3.5T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩179B | ₩181B | ₩173B | ₩167B | ₩172B | ₩177B | ₩182B | ₩188B |
| Growth | 12.4% | 1.3% | −4.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩95B | ₩94B | ₩90B | ₩89B | ₩91B | ₩94B | ₩96B | ₩99B |
| EBIT margin | 53.2% | 51.8% | 52.0% | 52.9% | 52.9% | 52.9% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩69B | ₩68B | ₩65B | ₩64B | ₩66B | ₩68B | ₩70B | ₩72B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩12B |
| − Capital spending | ₩26B | — | ₩2.4B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩15B |
| − Working capital | ₩139B | −₩55B | −₩1.1B | ₩1.8B | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩60B | ₩61B | ₩63B | ₩65B | ₩67B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.926 | 0.858 | 0.795 | 0.736 | 0.682 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩55B | ₩53B | ₩50B | ₩48B | ₩46B |
Terminal value ₩1.2T, worth ₩807B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,809 a share)Now 11.2× | ₩25,6556.74× | ₩39,32910.3× | ₩53,49314.0× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,042 a share)Now 40.9× | ₩27,92426.8× | ₩40,55938.9× | ₩51,62249.6× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,172 a share)Now 36.4× | ₩31,41026.8× | ₩45,62238.9× | ₩58,06649.6× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | ₩14,215 | ₩15,150 | ₩16,272 | ₩17,645 | ₩19,364 |
| 7.5% | ₩13,159 | ₩13,931 | ₩14,843 | ₩15,939 | ₩17,279 |
| 8.0% | ₩12,255 | ₩12,901 | ₩13,654 | ₩14,545 | ₩15,614 |
| 8.5% | ₩11,473 | ₩12,019 | ₩12,649 | ₩13,385 | ₩14,254 |
| 9.0% | ₩10,789 | ₩11,256 | ₩11,789 | ₩12,404 | ₩13,122 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩3.5T
- Enterprise value
- ₩3.4T
- P/E
- 40.9×
- P/B
- 11.2×
- P/S
- 21.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩33,500 | ₩26,050 | ₩43,850 | ₩13,374 |
| Market cap | ₩2.8T | ₩2.1T | ₩3.6T | ₩1.1T |
| P/E | 37.9× | 24.8× | 44.9× | 16.7× |
| P/B | 8.9× | 7.7× | 13.0× | 5.6× |
| P/S | 15.9× | 11.8× | 20.2× | 6.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.5% | 2.3% | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPSP | 40.9× | 11.2× | 21.5× | — | 1.2% |
| Doosan Enerbility | 193.9× | 4.3× | 2.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 78.4× | 23.3× | 31.6× | 70.6× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,058.2× | 13.0× | 34.0× | 2,036.0× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,137.6× | 53.0× | 156.2× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 44.1× | 6.4× | 10.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Bobcat | 13,622.5× | 911.6× | 733.9× | — | 3.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 626.0× | 18.1× | 32.8× | 1,053.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HPSP / 403870 / KRX:403870
Source: KRX statistical information