Shinhan Seobu T&D REIT신한서부티엔디리츠
404990 · KOSPI · ₩404990 · 신한서부티엔디리츠
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩3,447
vs the current price (₩3,900)
- Enterprise value
- ₩926B
- Equity value
- ₩212B
- WACC
- 4.9%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩3,447
- −11.6%
- Bull
- ₩14,682
- +276.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (66.8%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 66.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 22.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.09, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩32B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩617B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩1.4B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩98B
- Shares
- 61,627,860
- Share price
- ₩3,900
- Market cap
- ₩240B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩16B | ₩18B | ₩32B | ₩40B | ₩48B | ₩55B | ₩59B | ₩61B |
| Growth | 10.3% | 9.6% | 77.7% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩24B | ₩27B | ₩32B | ₩37B | ₩40B | ₩41B |
| EBIT margin | 64.6% | 66.0% | 74.0% | 66.8% | 66.8% | 66.8% | 66.8% | 66.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩7.7B | ₩8.6B | ₩17B | ₩19B | ₩23B | ₩26B | ₩29B | ₩30B |
| + Depreciation | ₩4.2B | ₩4.3B | ₩5.6B | ₩9B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩14B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩1.6B | ₩1.9B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩23B | −₩23B | ₩50B | −₩803M | −₩782M | −₩671M | −₩465M | −₩178M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩28B | ₩33B | ₩37B | ₩40B | ₩41B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.953 | 0.908 | 0.865 | 0.825 | 0.786 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩26B | ₩30B | ₩32B | ₩33B | ₩32B |
Terminal value ₩983B, worth ₩772B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩4,059 a share)Now 0.96× | ₩3,2340.80× | ₩3,6700.90× | ₩4,4411.09× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.9% | ₩3,980 | ₩6,736 | ₩10,914 | ₩17,992 | ₩32,597 |
| 4.4% | ₩1,790 | ₩3,710 | ₩6,417 | ₩10,520 | ₩17,470 |
| 4.9% | ₩154 | ₩1,561 | ₩3,447 | ₩6,105 | ₩10,134 |
| 5.4% | — | — | ₩1,337 | ₩3,189 | ₩5,801 |
| 5.9% | — | — | — | ₩1,118 | ₩2,938 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩240B
- Enterprise value
- ₩858B
- P/E
- 94.9×
- P/B
- 1.0×
- P/S
- 7.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- 29.5×
- Dividend yield
- 3.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,595 | ₩3,435 | ₩3,670 | ₩3,645 | ₩5,000 |
| Market cap | ₩222B | ₩212B | ₩226B | ₩225B | ₩308B |
| P/E | 113.5× | 20.6× | — | — | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 0.8× | 0.9× | 0.8× | 1.1× |
| P/S | 6.9× | 11.7× | 13.7× | 15.0× | 29.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.7× | 44.3× | 33.9× | 34.1× | 59.9× |
| Dividend yield | 3.6% | 3.8% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shinhan Seobu T&D REIT | 94.9× | 1.0× | 7.5× | 29.5× | 3.3% |
| SK Reit | 49.6× | 0.8× | 22.8× | — | 1.3% |
| Lotte Reit | 59.2× | 1.1× | 16.3× | — | 2.8% |
| Hanwha Reit | 68.1× | 1.4× | 16.7× | 45.4× | 2.5% |
| ESR Kendall Square Reit | 1,184.3× | 0.7× | 11.7× | 73.5× | 4.5% |
| Shinhan Alpha REIT | 97.6× | 1.2× | 8.0× | 34.3× | 3.0% |
| SamsungFN Reit | 153.7× | 1.2× | 38.5× | — | 1.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 82.9× | 1.1× | 16.5× | 45.4× | 2.7% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Shinhan Seobu T&D REIT / 신한서부티엔디리츠 / 404990 / KRX:404990
Source: KRX statistical information