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CP System

413630 · KOSDAQ · ₩413630 · 씨피시스템

₩3,115▼ ₩70 (2.20%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,066

vs the current price (₩3,115)

Enterprise value
₩25B
Equity value
₩39B
WACC
8.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 66% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,115, the model needs an operating margin of 52.6% every year (it uses 14.3%).
  • Or revenue growth +41.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • 30% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩842
−73.0%
Base
₩1,066
−65.8%
Bull
₩1,435
−53.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 14.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 7.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.74

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.61, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩21B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩12B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
36,436,605
Share price
₩3,115
Market cap
₩114B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩0₩21B₩19B₩19B₩18B₩17B₩17B₩17B
Growth——−10.5%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩76M₩3.3B₩2.1B₩2.7B₩2.5B₩2.4B₩2.4B₩2.5B
EBIT margin—15.6%11.2%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%
After-tax EBIT−₩55M₩2.4B₩1.6B₩2B₩1.8B₩1.8B₩1.8B₩1.8B
+ Depreciation———₩1.1B₩1B₩967M₩966M₩994M
− Capital spending—₩2.2B₩762M₩1.4B₩1.3B₩1.2B₩1.2B₩1.3B
− Working capital—₩13B−₩5.7B−₩838M−₩505M−₩246M−₩14M₩203M
Free cash flow———₩2.5B₩2.1B₩1.8B₩1.5B₩1.3B
Discount factor———0.9250.8560.7920.7330.678
Present value———₩2.3B₩1.8B₩1.4B₩1.1B₩911M

Terminal value ₩26B, worth ₩18B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,220 a share)Now 2.55×₩1,3781.13×₩3,4282.81×₩14,89612.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.1%₩1,112₩1,150₩1,196₩1,251₩1,320
7.6%₩1,058₩1,089₩1,125₩1,169₩1,221
8.1%₩1,012₩1,037₩1,066₩1,101₩1,142
8.6%₩971₩992₩1,016₩1,044₩1,077
9.1%₩936₩953₩973₩996₩1,023

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩114B
Enterprise value
₩101B
P/E
32.4×
P/B
2.6×
P/S
5.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.9%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩4,545₩1,720₩3,745
Market cap₩166B₩63B₩136B
P/E82.7×—652.5×
P/B3.8×1.4×12.2×
P/S8.7×2.9×—
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield1.3%3.5%—

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
CP System32.4×2.6×5.4×—1.9%
Hankook Tire & Technology5.8×0.5×0.3×—4.0%
Kumho Tire3.1×0.6×0.3×—0.0%
Pum-Tech Korea19.5×2.5×2.1×—0.7%
Dongwon Systems9.7×0.7×0.4×5.7×2.8%
Nexen Tire3.7×0.3×0.2×—3.4%
PI Advanced Materials12.0×1.2×1.6×4.8×2.4%
Similar companies (median)7.7×0.6×0.4×5.3×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: CP System / 씨피시스템 / 413630 / KRX:413630

Source: KRX statistical information