Daehan Shipbuilding대한조선
439260 · KOSPI · ₩439260 · 대한조선
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩140,879
vs the current price (₩36,850)
- Enterprise value
- ₩4.6T
- Equity value
- ₩5.4T
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 282% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩36,850, the model needs an operating margin of 4.0% every year (it uses 25.2%).
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩102,660
- +178.6%
- Base
- ₩140,879
- +282.3%
- Bull
- ₩203,047
- +451.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (25.2%).
Revenue growth
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
Business
- 25.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 1 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 1 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 16.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 1 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 65 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.41, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.3T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩630B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩146B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 38,088,730
- Share price
- ₩36,850
- Market cap
- ₩1.4T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T |
| Growth | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩294B | ₩334B | ₩344B | ₩354B | ₩365B | ₩376B |
| EBIT margin | 23.9% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩213B | ₩242B | ₩249B | ₩257B | ₩265B | ₩273B |
| + Depreciation | — | ₩8B | ₩8.2B | ₩8.4B | ₩8.7B | ₩9B |
| − Capital spending | ₩9B | ₩9.3B | ₩9.6B | ₩9.8B | ₩10B | ₩10B |
| − Working capital | — | ₩6.4B | ₩6.6B | ₩6.8B | ₩7B | ₩7.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | ₩235B | ₩242B | ₩249B | ₩256B | ₩264B |
| Discount factor | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | ₩218B | ₩210B | ₩201B | ₩193B | ₩185B |
Terminal value ₩5.1T, worth ₩3.6T today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩146,056 | ₩156,288 | ₩168,876 | ₩184,743 | ₩205,365 |
| 6.8% | ₩135,151 | ₩143,435 | ₩153,428 | ₩165,723 | ₩181,220 |
| 7.3% | ₩125,971 | ₩132,788 | ₩140,879 | ₩150,640 | ₩162,649 |
| 7.8% | ₩118,137 | ₩123,825 | ₩130,483 | ₩138,387 | ₩147,922 |
| 8.3% | ₩111,373 | ₩116,175 | ₩121,731 | ₩128,236 | ₩135,957 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.4T
- Enterprise value
- ₩773B
- P/E
- 4.7×
- P/B
- 1.2×
- P/S
- 1.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.7%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | |
|---|---|
| Price | ₩67,000 |
| Market cap | ₩2.6T |
| P/E | 10.3× |
| P/B | 2.3× |
| P/S | 2.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.4% |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daehan Shipbuilding | 4.7× | 1.2× | 1.1× | — | 0.7% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries | 12.2× | 2.9× | 1.4× | — | 1.9% |
| Hanwha Ocean | 7.8× | 2.2× | 1.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Heavy Industries | 25.5× | 3.0× | 1.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Sejin Heavy Industries | 6.6× | 1.7× | 1.1× | — | 3.0% |
| Hyundai Hyms | 14.5× | 1.4× | 1.4× | — | 1.3% |
| Inhwa Precision | 12.3× | 0.9× | 2.7× | 15.6× | 2.2% |
| Similar companies (median) | 12.2× | 1.9× | 1.3× | 15.6× | 1.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Daehan Shipbuilding / 대한조선 / 439260 / KRX:439260
Source: KRX statistical information