HD Hyundai Marine SolutionHD현대마린솔루션
443060 · KOSPI · ₩443060 · HD현대마린솔루션
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩152,079
vs the current price (₩169,600)
- Enterprise value
- ₩6.4T
- Equity value
- ₩6.8T
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩102,438
- −39.6%
- Base
- ₩152,079
- −10.3%
- Bull
- ₩233,996
- +38.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (16.8%).
Revenue growth
- 13.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 10.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 16.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 17.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.31, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩2.2T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩423B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩2.5B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 44,833,460
- Share price
- ₩169,600
- Market cap
- ₩7.6T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.7T | ₩2T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.8T | ₩3T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.2T |
| Growth | — | 13.6% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩272B | ₩350B | ₩417B | ₩462B | ₩501B | ₩529B | ₩545B |
| EBIT margin | 15.6% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩197B | ₩254B | ₩302B | ₩335B | ₩363B | ₩383B | ₩395B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | ₩15B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩19B | ₩19B |
| − Capital spending | ₩10B | ₩18B | ₩17B | ₩19B | ₩21B | ₩22B | ₩23B |
| − Working capital | — | ₩149B | ₩51B | ₩47B | ₩40B | ₩29B | ₩16B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | ₩248B | ₩286B | ₩321B | ₩351B | ₩375B |
| Discount factor | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | — | ₩231B | ₩248B | ₩259B | ₩265B | ₩263B |
Terminal value ₩7.3T, worth ₩5.1T today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩19,898 a share)Now 8.52× | ₩154,3117.75× | ₩212,69110.7× | ₩257,24312.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩158,950 | ₩171,097 | ₩186,038 | ₩204,865 | ₩229,330 |
| 6.8% | ₩145,661 | ₩155,469 | ₩167,297 | ₩181,845 | ₩200,178 |
| 7.3% | ₩134,480 | ₩142,529 | ₩152,079 | ₩163,596 | ₩177,762 |
| 7.8% | ₩124,942 | ₩131,639 | ₩139,477 | ₩148,777 | ₩159,992 |
| 8.3% | ₩116,713 | ₩122,350 | ₩128,872 | ₩136,504 | ₩145,560 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩7.6T
- Enterprise value
- ₩7.1T
- P/E
- 22.7×
- P/B
- 8.5×
- P/S
- 3.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩193,500 | ₩161,400 |
| Market cap | ₩8.7T | ₩7.2T |
| P/E | 32.2× | 31.7× |
| P/B | 10.5× | 9.4× |
| P/S | 4.4× | 4.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD Hyundai Marine Solution | 22.7× | 8.5× | 3.5× | — | 2.3% |
| Samsung E&A | 17.7× | 2.3× | 1.2× | — | 1.3% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction | 96.9× | 5.9× | 6.5× | 48.2× | 1.5% |
| POSCO DX | 88.4× | 5.0× | 2.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanyang ENG | 7.3× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 3.5× | 0.0% |
| SemiFive | — | 2.0× | 3.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Korea Electronic Power Industrial Development | 67.1× | 3.0× | 0.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 67.1× | 2.7× | 2.1× | 25.8× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HD Hyundai Marine Solution / HD현대마린솔루션 / 443060 / KRX:443060
Source: KRX statistical information