HD Hyundai Marine Solution

443060 · KOSPI · ₩443060 · HD현대마린솔루션

₩169,600▼ ₩26,900 (13.69%)End-of-day · Oct 26, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩152,079

vs the current price (₩169,600)

Enterprise value
₩6.4T
Equity value
₩6.8T
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩102,438
−39.6%
Base
₩152,079
−10.3%
Bull
₩233,996
+38.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (16.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 13.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 10.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (13.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 16.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.31, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩423B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2.5B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
44,833,460
Share price
₩169,600
Market cap
₩7.6T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.7T₩2T₩2.5T₩2.8T₩3T₩3.1T₩3.2T
Growth—13.6%13.6%10.9%8.3%5.6%3.0%
EBIT₩272B₩350B₩417B₩462B₩501B₩529B₩545B
EBIT margin15.6%17.7%16.8%16.8%16.8%16.8%16.8%
After-tax EBIT₩197B₩254B₩302B₩335B₩363B₩383B₩395B
+ Depreciation——₩15B₩17B₩18B₩19B₩19B
− Capital spending₩10B₩18B₩17B₩19B₩21B₩22B₩23B
− Working capital—₩149B₩51B₩47B₩40B₩29B₩16B
Free cash flow——₩248B₩286B₩321B₩351B₩375B
Discount factor——0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value——₩231B₩248B₩259B₩265B₩263B

Terminal value ₩7.3T, worth ₩5.1T today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩19,898 a share)Now 8.52×₩154,3117.75×₩212,69110.7×₩257,24312.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩158,950₩171,097₩186,038₩204,865₩229,330
6.8%₩145,661₩155,469₩167,297₩181,845₩200,178
7.3%₩134,480₩142,529₩152,079₩163,596₩177,762
7.8%₩124,942₩131,639₩139,477₩148,777₩159,992
8.3%₩116,713₩122,350₩128,872₩136,504₩145,560

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩7.6T
Enterprise value
₩7.1T
P/E
22.7×
P/B
8.5×
P/S
3.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024
Price₩193,500₩161,400
Market cap₩8.7T₩7.2T
P/E32.2×31.7×
P/B10.5×9.4×
P/S4.4×4.1×
EV/EBITDA——
Dividend yield2.0%2.0%

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HD Hyundai Marine Solution22.7×8.5×3.5×—2.3%
Samsung E&A17.7×2.3×1.2×—1.3%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction96.9×5.9×6.5×48.2×1.5%
POSCO DX88.4×5.0×2.9×—0.0%
Hanyang ENG7.3×0.7×0.4×3.5×0.0%
SemiFive—2.0×3.7×—0.0%
Korea Electronic Power Industrial Development67.1×3.0×0.8×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)67.1×2.7×2.1×25.8×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HD Hyundai Marine Solution / HD현대마린솔루션 / 443060 / KRX:443060

Source: KRX statistical information