KOSPI · 453340 · Retail & Trade · ₩453340

Hyundai Green Food현대그린푸드

453340 · KOSPI · ₩453340 · 현대그린푸드

₩19,160▲ ₩280 (1.48%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩52,300

vs the current price (₩19,160)

Enterprise value: ₩1.7T
Equity value: ₩1.7T
WACC: 7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 173% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩19,160, the model needs an operating margin of 1.9% every year (it uses 4.4%).
Or revenue growth −27.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Today's P/E is 5.9× against a typical 6.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩19,507; +1.8%
Base: ₩52,300; +173.0%
Bull: ₩110,077; +474.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.4%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 112.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 210.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 38%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 45.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin4.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation1.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending1.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital7.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩2.4T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩31B
Shares: 32,471,587
Share price: ₩19,160
Market cap: ₩622B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩1.8T	₩2.3T	₩2.3T	₩2.7T	₩3T	₩3.3T	₩3.4T	₩3.5T
Growth	—	24.3%	2.6%	12.9%	10.4%	8.0%	5.5%	3.0%
EBIT	₩65B	₩97B	₩107B	₩120B	₩133B	₩144B	₩151B	₩156B
EBIT margin	3.5%	4.3%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.4%	4.4%	4.4%
After-tax EBIT	₩47B	₩70B	₩77B	₩87B	₩96B	₩104B	₩110B	₩113B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩36B	₩39B	₩42B	₩45B	₩46B
− Capital spending	₩42B	₩27B	₩31B	₩44B	₩48B	₩52B	₩55B	₩57B
− Working capital	—	₩58B	₩31B	₩24B	₩22B	₩19B	₩14B	₩8B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩55B	₩65B	₩76B	₩86B	₩94B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.931	0.867	0.808	0.752	0.700
Present value	—	—	—	₩51B	₩57B	₩61B	₩64B	₩66B

Terminal value ₩2T, worth ₩1.4T today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩24,077 a share)Now 0.80×	₩13,9250.58×	₩16,2880.68×	₩18,9000.78×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩3,223 a share)Now 5.94×	₩18,9925.89×	₩21,6466.72×	₩24,0597.46×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,766 a share)Now 5.09×	₩22,1935.89×	₩25,2946.72×	₩28,1147.46×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.4%	₩55,317	₩59,516	₩64,667	₩71,136	₩79,510
6.9%	₩50,413	₩53,787	₩57,847	₩62,826	₩69,081
7.4%	₩46,283	₩49,038	₩52,300	₩56,224	₩61,037
7.9%	₩42,758	₩45,038	₩47,701	₩50,854	₩54,647
8.4%	₩39,715	₩41,624	₩43,828	₩46,401	₩49,448

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩622B
Enterprise value: ₩563B
P/E: 5.9×
P/B: 0.8×
P/S: 0.3×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 3.5%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023
Price	₩15,610	₩14,440	₩11,480
Market cap	₩507B	₩469B	₩373B
P/E	5.8×	6.3×	9.5×
P/B	0.7×	0.7×	0.6×
P/S	0.2×	0.2×	0.2×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—
Dividend yield	4.3%	2.3%	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Hyundai Green Food	5.9×	0.8×	0.3×	—	3.5%
Samsung C&T	18.8×	0.5×	1.2×	—	0.9%
POSCO International	10.6×	1.3×	0.3×	—	3.7%
ISC	45.3×	6.0×	12.6×	—	0.5%
Youngone	5.1×	0.7×	0.7×	—	3.1%
Dong SUH Companies	18.9×	1.6×	5.1×	—	4.2%
Shinsegae	14.4×	0.5×	0.3×	—	2.0%
Similar companies (median)	16.6×	1.0×	1.0×	—	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai Green Food / 현대그린푸드 / 453340 / KRX:453340

Source: KRX statistical information