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Doosan Robotics

454910 · KOSPI · ₩454910 · 두산로보틱스

₩56,600▲ ₩300 (0.53%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩927

vs the current price (₩56,600)

Enterprise value
−₩123B
Equity value
₩60B
WACC
8.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 98% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from −180.3% to −36.1% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,311
−97.7%
Base
₩927
−98.4%
Bull
₩410
−99.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 21.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 27.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.76

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.64, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩56B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩169B
+ Stakes and investments
₩14B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
64,819,980
Share price
₩56,600
Market cap
₩3.7T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩53B₩47B₩33B₩51B₩47B₩45B₩45B₩47B
Growth—−11.7%−29.6%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩19B−₩41B−₩59B−₩10B−₩9.4B−₩9.1B−₩9.1B−₩9.4B
EBIT margin−36.1%−88.0%−180.3%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩14B−₩30B−₩43B−₩7.3B−₩6.8B−₩6.6B−₩6.6B−₩6.8B
+ Depreciation———₩11B₩10B₩9.9B₩9.9B₩10B
− Capital spending₩9.1B₩8.2B₩15B₩14B₩13B₩12B₩12B₩13B
− Working capital—₩21B−₩9.4B−₩2.2B−₩1.4B−₩660M−₩36M₩545M
Free cash flow———−₩7.8B−₩8B−₩8.4B−₩9B−₩9.8B
Discount factor———0.9230.8530.7880.7270.672
Present value———−₩7.2B−₩6.8B−₩6.6B−₩6.5B−₩6.6B

Terminal value −₩133B, worth −₩89B today: 72% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,079 a share)Now 11.1×₩41,2258.12×₩55,33310.9×₩87,15717.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.3%₩894₩748₩575₩366₩107
7.8%₩1,033₩910₩766₩594₩387
8.3%₩1,154₩1,049₩927₩784₩613
8.8%₩1,259₩1,168₩1,064₩943₩801
9.3%₩1,351₩1,272₩1,182₩1,079₩959

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩3.7T
Enterprise value
₩3.5T
P/E
—
P/B
11.1×
P/S
65.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩78,000₩52,300₩116,100
Market cap₩5.1T₩3.4T₩7.5T
P/E———
P/B14.5×8.4×17.2×
P/S153.3×72.4×141.9×
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield0.0%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Doosan Robotics—11.1×65.4×—0.0%
Doosan Enerbility208.4×4.6×2.1×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor82.2×24.4×33.1×74.0×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,121.0×13.7×36.0×2,158.2×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,006.5×51.3×151.2×—0.0%
EO Technics44.8×6.5×10.9×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,664.7×914.4×736.1×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)664.7×19.1×34.5×1,116.1×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Doosan Robotics / 두산로보틱스 / 454910 / KRX:454910

Source: KRX statistical information