OCIOCI
456040 · KOSPI · ₩456040 · OCI
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩48,581
vs the current price (₩58,600)
- Enterprise value
- ₩846B
- Equity value
- ₩435B
- WACC
- 6.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩48,581
- −17.1%
- Bull
- ₩315,591
- +438.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.2%).
Revenue growth
- 24.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 13.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 3.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 26.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.7
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.55, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩2T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩513B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩144B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩42B
- Shares
- 8,952,495
- Share price
- ₩58,600
- Market cap
- ₩525B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.3T | ₩2.2T | ₩2T | ₩2.5T | ₩3T | ₩3.4T | ₩3.7T | ₩3.8T |
| Growth | — | 71.9% | −9.3% | 24.9% | 19.4% | 13.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩57B | ₩110B | ₩440M | ₩79B | ₩95B | ₩108B | ₩117B | ₩121B |
| EBIT margin | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩42B | ₩80B | ₩319M | ₩58B | ₩69B | ₩78B | ₩85B | ₩87B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩77B | ₩92B | ₩105B | ₩113B | ₩117B |
| − Capital spending | ₩54B | ₩72B | ₩83B | ₩97B | ₩115B | ₩132B | ₩143B | ₩147B |
| − Working capital | — | ₩145B | ₩35B | ₩132B | ₩129B | ₩110B | ₩77B | ₩29B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩95B | −₩84B | −₩59B | −₩21B | ₩28B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.943 | 0.890 | 0.839 | 0.792 | 0.747 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩89B | −₩75B | −₩50B | −₩17B | ₩21B |
Terminal value ₩1.4T, worth ₩1.1T today: 125% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩131,858 a share)Now 0.44× | ₩54,4080.41× | ₩80,3780.61× | ₩129,1480.98× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | ₩74,975 | ₩83,630 | ₩95,013 | ₩110,757 | ₩134,116 |
| 5.5% | ₩56,102 | ₩61,546 | ₩68,417 | ₩77,429 | ₩89,860 |
| 6.0% | ₩41,108 | ₩44,477 | ₩48,581 | ₩53,735 | ₩60,461 |
| 6.5% | ₩28,934 | ₩30,919 | ₩33,253 | ₩36,066 | ₩39,564 |
| 7.0% | ₩18,873 | ₩19,913 | ₩21,080 | ₩22,416 | ₩23,986 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩525B
- Enterprise value
- ₩1T
- P/E
- 60.7×
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩59,600 | ₩58,500 | ₩111,300 |
| Market cap | ₩534B | ₩524B | ₩996B |
| P/E | — | 5.5× | 19.1× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.4× | 1.0× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 3.8% | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCI | 60.7× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| LG Chem | — | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 0.8% |
| Hanwha Solutions | — | 0.6× | 0.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanwha | 6.3× | 0.4× | 0.1× | — | 1.4% |
| SKC | — | 2.1× | 2.0× | — | 0.0% |
| KCC | 0.9× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 8.9× | 0.0% |
| Kumho Petro Chemical | 5.3× | 0.4× | 0.4× | — | 1.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 5.3× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 8.9× | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: OCI / 456040 / KRX:456040
Source: KRX statistical information