New Kids On뉴키즈온
462310 · KOSDAQ · ₩462310 · 뉴키즈온
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩509
vs the current price (₩3,610)
- Enterprise value
- ₩2.1B
- Equity value
- ₩4B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 86% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩3,610, the model needs an operating margin of 4.9% every year (it uses 1.6%).
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩509
- −85.9%
- Bull
- ₩2,928
- −18.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.6%).
Revenue growth
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
Business
- 1.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 1 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 1 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 1 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 68 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩52B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩2.1B
- − Minority interests
- ₩116M
- Shares
- 7,898,605
- Share price
- ₩3,610
- Market cap
- ₩29B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩49B | ₩54B | ₩55B | ₩57B | ₩59B | ₩60B |
| Growth | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩724M | ₩857M | ₩883M | ₩909M | ₩936M | ₩965M |
| EBIT margin | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩525M | ₩621M | ₩640M | ₩659M | ₩679M | ₩699M |
| + Depreciation | — | ₩375M | ₩386M | ₩398M | ₩410M | ₩422M |
| − Capital spending | ₩406M | ₩428M | ₩441M | ₩455M | ₩468M | ₩482M |
| − Working capital | — | ₩624M | ₩643M | ₩662M | ₩682M | ₩702M |
| Free cash flow | — | −₩56M | −₩58M | −₩60M | −₩61M | −₩63M |
| Discount factor | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | −₩52M | −₩50M | −₩48M | −₩46M | −₩44M |
Terminal value ₩3.3B, worth ₩2.3B today: 112% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩937 | ₩783 | ₩592 | ₩348 | ₩30 |
| 6.9% | ₩861 | ₩719 | ₩546 | ₩331 | ₩58 |
| 7.4% | ₩798 | ₩667 | ₩509 | ₩317 | ₩80 |
| 7.9% | ₩744 | ₩622 | ₩479 | ₩306 | ₩97 |
| 8.4% | ₩697 | ₩585 | ₩453 | ₩297 | ₩111 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩29B
- Enterprise value
- ₩22B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.7×
- P/S
- 0.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | |
|---|---|
| Price | ₩5,710 |
| Market cap | ₩45B |
| P/E | — |
| P/B | 1.0× |
| P/S | 0.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: New Kids On / 뉴키즈온 / 462310 / KRX:462310
Source: KRX statistical information