KOSPI · 462520 · Building materials · ₩462520

Chosun Refractories조선내화

462520 · KOSPI · ₩462520 · 조선내화

₩11,010▼ ₩20 (0.18%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩60,614

vs the current price (₩11,010)

Enterprise value: ₩772B
Equity value: ₩719B
WACC: 5.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 451% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩11,010, the model needs an operating margin of 2.7% every year (it uses 6.0%).
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩19,498; +77.1%
Base: ₩60,614; +450.5%
Bull: ₩146,366; +1,229.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.0%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 125%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (38% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 219.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (38% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 314%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (38% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 48.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (38% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (38% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending3.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital26.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.2, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩523B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩140B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩99B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩11B
Shares: 11,855,168
Share price: ₩11,010
Market cap: ₩131B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩279B	₩501B	₩532B	₩654B	₩781B	₩891B	₩966B	₩995B
Growth	—	79.2%	6.3%	25.0%	19.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.0%
EBIT	₩32B	₩20B	₩24B	₩39B	₩47B	₩53B	₩58B	₩60B
EBIT margin	11.4%	4.0%	4.5%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%
After-tax EBIT	₩23B	₩15B	₩17B	₩28B	₩34B	₩39B	₩42B	₩43B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩18B	₩21B	₩24B	₩26B	₩27B
− Capital spending	₩9.1B	₩14B	₩21B	₩22B	₩26B	₩29B	₩32B	₩33B
− Working capital	—	−₩22B	₩35B	₩34B	₩33B	₩29B	₩20B	₩7.6B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	−₩9.7B	−₩4.1B	₩4.7B	₩16B	₩30B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.946	0.895	0.847	0.802	0.759
Present value	—	—	—	−₩9.2B	−₩3.7B	₩4B	₩13B	₩23B

Terminal value ₩982B, worth ₩745B today: 97% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩18,235 a share)Now 0.60×	₩12,7630.70×	₩14,1250.77×	₩19,6571.08×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.7%	₩67,968	₩76,604	₩88,433	₩105,658	₩133,107
5.2%	₩58,059	₩64,231	₩72,318	₩83,395	₩99,523
5.7%	₩50,294	₩54,846	₩60,614	₩68,171	₩78,521
6.2%	₩44,049	₩47,490	₩51,735	₩57,113	₩64,158
6.7%	₩38,924	₩41,575	₩44,776	₩48,724	₩53,724

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩131B
Enterprise value: ₩271B
P/E: 59.4×
P/B: 0.6×
P/S: 0.2×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 1.8%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023
Price	₩14,100	₩15,460	₩21,250
Market cap	₩167B	₩183B	₩252B
P/E	75.2×	31.5×	10.7×
P/B	0.8×	0.8×	1.2×
P/S	0.3×	0.4×	0.9×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—
Dividend yield	1.4%	1.3%	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Chosun Refractories	59.4×	0.6×	0.2×	—	1.8%
Tokai Carbon Korea	31.7×	4.5×	7.2×	—	0.7%
Hanilcementco	11.9×	0.7×	0.9×	—	6.1%
Wonik QnC	14.8×	1.3×	0.7×	—	0.5%
Sampyo Cement	17.4×	0.8×	0.9×	6.1×	2.1%
Hanil Holdings	9.4×	0.3×	0.3×	—	6.0%
IS Dongseo	5.1×	0.3×	0.4×	—	3.5%
Similar companies (median)	13.4×	0.7×	0.8×	6.1×	2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Chosun Refractories / 조선내화 / 462520 / KRX:462520

Source: KRX statistical information