Orum Therapeutics오름테라퓨틱
475830 · KOSDAQ · ₩475830 · 오름테라퓨틱
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩3,611
vs the current price (₩16,070)
- Enterprise value
- −₩82M
- Equity value
- ₩79B
- WACC
- 7.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 78% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩3,612
- −77.5%
- Base
- ₩3,611
- −77.5%
- Bull
- ₩3,610
- −77.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-99.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-99.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-99.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-99.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (-99.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.67
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 89 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.5, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩41M
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩79B
- Shares
- 21,752,916
- Share price
- ₩16,070
- Market cap
- ₩350B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩21B | ₩24M | ₩36M | ₩34M | ₩33M | ₩33M | ₩34M |
| Growth | — | −99.9% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩8.3B | −₩52B | −₩7.3M | −₩6.8M | −₩6.6M | −₩6.6M | −₩6.8M |
| EBIT margin | −39.9% | −219,651.4% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩6B | −₩38B | −₩5.3M | −₩4.9M | −₩4.8M | −₩4.8M | −₩4.9M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | ₩1.1M | ₩1M | ₩985,820 | ₩983,848 | ₩1M |
| − Capital spending | — | — | ₩1.5M | ₩1.4M | ₩1.3M | ₩1.3M | ₩1.4M |
| − Working capital | — | ₩56B | −₩1.6M | −₩978,143 | −₩476,735 | −₩26,289 | ₩393,539 |
| Free cash flow | — | — | −₩4M | −₩4.3M | −₩4.6M | −₩5.1M | −₩5.6M |
| Discount factor | — | — | 0.928 | 0.861 | 0.798 | 0.741 | 0.687 |
| Present value | — | — | −₩3.7M | −₩3.7M | −₩3.7M | −₩3.7M | −₩3.9M |
Terminal value −₩93M, worth −₩64M today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | ₩3,611 | ₩3,611 | ₩3,611 | ₩3,610 | ₩3,610 |
| 7.3% | ₩3,612 | ₩3,611 | ₩3,611 | ₩3,611 | ₩3,610 |
| 7.8% | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 | ₩3,611 | ₩3,611 | ₩3,611 |
| 8.3% | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 | ₩3,611 |
| 8.8% | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 | ₩3,612 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩350B
- Enterprise value
- ₩244B
- P/E
- 18.9×
- P/B
- 1.9×
- P/S
- 8,620.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | |
|---|---|
| Price | ₩120,000 |
| Market cap | ₩2.6T |
| P/E | — |
| P/B | 19.9× |
| P/S | 110,775.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% |
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Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orum Therapeutics | 18.9× | 1.9× | 8,620.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.1× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.8× | 2.4× | 8.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 78.8× | 28.4× | 59.9× | — | 0.1% |
| Yuhan | 24.8× | 2.5× | 2.6× | 32.5× | 0.8% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.6× | 5.7× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| HLB | — | 15.4× | 54.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.8× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 32.5× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Orum Therapeutics / 오름테라퓨틱 / 475830 / KRX:475830
Source: KRX statistical information