Onconic Therapeutics온코닉테라퓨틱스
476060 · KOSDAQ · ₩476060 · 온코닉테라퓨틱스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩2,308
vs the current price (₩13,070)
- Enterprise value
- ₩47B
- Equity value
- ₩105B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 82% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩13,070, the model needs an operating margin of 30.0% every year (it uses 4.1%).
- 36% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩1,436
- −89.0%
- Base
- ₩2,308
- −82.3%
- Bull
- ₩3,888
- −70.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.1%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (259.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (259.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (259.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (259.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (259.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 27.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 97 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.28, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩82B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩58B
- Shares
- 45,407,840
- Share price
- ₩13,070
- Market cap
- ₩593B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩15B | ₩53B | ₩103B | ₩123B | ₩140B | ₩152B | ₩156B |
| Growth | — | 259.8% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩4.8B | ₩13B | ₩4.2B | ₩5B | ₩5.7B | ₩6.2B | ₩6.4B |
| EBIT margin | −32.3% | 23.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩3.5B | ₩9.1B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.6B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.5B | ₩4.6B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | ₩616M | ₩736M | ₩840M | ₩911M | ₩938M |
| − Capital spending | ₩141M | ₩303M | ₩822M | ₩982M | ₩1.1B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.3B |
| − Working capital | — | ₩8.8B | ₩5.6B | ₩5.4B | ₩4.7B | ₩3.2B | ₩1.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | −₩2.7B | −₩2B | −₩777M | ₩986M | ₩3.1B |
| Discount factor | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | −₩2.5B | −₩1.8B | −₩627M | ₩741M | ₩2.2B |
Terminal value ₩70B, worth ₩49B today: 104% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩2,477 | ₩2,540 | ₩2,617 | ₩2,712 | ₩2,834 |
| 6.9% | ₩2,345 | ₩2,391 | ₩2,446 | ₩2,513 | ₩2,596 |
| 7.4% | ₩2,234 | ₩2,268 | ₩2,308 | ₩2,355 | ₩2,413 |
| 7.9% | ₩2,139 | ₩2,164 | ₩2,193 | ₩2,227 | ₩2,267 |
| 8.4% | ₩2,058 | ₩2,076 | ₩2,097 | ₩2,121 | ₩2,149 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩593B
- Enterprise value
- ₩535B
- P/E
- 30.1×
- P/B
- 6.9×
- P/S
- 7.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩19,550 | ₩4,085 |
| Market cap | ₩888B | ₩185B |
| P/E | 56.2× | — |
| P/B | 12.3× | 3.3× |
| P/S | 16.6× | 12.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onconic Therapeutics | 30.1× | 6.9× | 7.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Onconic Therapeutics / 온코닉테라퓨틱스 / 476060 / KRX:476060
Source: KRX statistical information