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950130 · KOSDAQ · ₩950130 · 엑세스바이오

₩1,920▼ ₩40 (2.04%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3

vs the current price (₩1,920)

Enterprise value
−₩36M
Equity value
₩116M
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 100% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from −202.7% to 51.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩4
−99.8%
Base
₩3
−99.8%
Bull
₩3
−99.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-69.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-69.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-69.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-69.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-69.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩16M
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩107M
+ Stakes and investments
₩56M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩11M
Shares
35,173,834
Share price
₩1,920
Market cap
₩68B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩267M₩82M₩22M₩15M₩14M₩13M₩13M₩13M
Growth−66.6%−69.1%−73.3%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩17M−₩3.1M−₩45M−₩2.9M−₩2.7M−₩2.6M−₩2.6M−₩2.7M
EBIT margin6.2%−3.8%−202.7%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT₩12M−₩2.2M−₩32M−₩2.1M−₩2M−₩1.9M−₩1.9M−₩2M
+ Depreciation———₩436,763₩407,500₩393,238₩392,451₩404,225
− Capital spending———₩582,351₩543,333₩524,317₩523,268₩538,966
− Working capital₩2.6M₩53M−₩21M−₩647,057−₩390,175−₩190,167−₩10,486₩156,980
Free cash flow———−₩1.6M−₩1.7M−₩1.8M−₩2M−₩2.2M
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———−₩1.5M−₩1.5M−₩1.5M−₩1.5M−₩1.6M

Terminal value −₩40M, worth −₩28M today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10 a share)Now 195.3×₩2,588263.3×₩4,610469.0×₩19,1481948.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩3₩3₩3₩3₩3
6.8%₩3₩3₩3₩3₩3
7.3%₩3₩3₩3₩3₩3
7.8%₩4₩3₩3₩3₩3
8.3%₩4₩4₩3₩3₩3

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩68B
Enterprise value
₩67B
P/E
—
P/B
195.3×
P/S
4,174.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,800₩4,440₩7,674₩10,438₩13,689
Market cap₩134B₩156B₩270B₩367B₩481B
P/E———1,368.2×2,904.8×
P/B344.2×353.1×595.8×752.7×1,991.7×
P/S6,082.0×1,894.2×1,010.7×458.8×1,090.9×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Access Bio—195.3×4,174.8×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics31.9×7.6×13.9×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen79.4×28.6×60.3×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals15.2×6.0×7.1×—0.0%
Yuhan23.2×2.3×2.4×30.2×0.8%
HLB—15.4×54.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.8×11.4×30.2×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Access Bio / 엑세스바이오 / 950130 / KRX:950130

Source: KRX statistical information