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“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
— Warren Buffett, The New York Times, 2008
New convertible bonds and warrants add future shares; small companies that issue them often see their shares drift lower.
Some issues fund real growth; the effect differs a lot by issuer, and small issuers are expensive or impossible to borrow.
A convertible bond or bond-with-warrants issue is filed → short vs the market for 20 trading days from the next day.
2257 signals → 321 trades (944 left out by filters, 93 over the position limit, 20 still open, 0 too big to fill, 0 exited at delisting).
Short-selling bans: 854 trades skipped, 0 used index futures instead.
Shaded: out-of-sample, from Apr 28, 2025.
| Year | Trades | Profitable | Avg net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 8 | 37.5% | −4.5% |
| 2022 | 10 | 60.0% | +1.7% |
| 2023 | 15 | 60.0% | −11.3% |
| 2025 | 146 | 69.2% | +4.9% |
| 2026 | 142 | 61.3% | +8.7% |
Each half-year is traded only if the previous two years were positive.
| From | Traded | Trades | Avg net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2023 | No | 1 | 0.0% |
| Apr 28, 2024 | No | 0 | — |
| Oct 27, 2024 | No | 14 | −6.3% |
| Apr 27, 2025 | No | 95 | +7.9% |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Yes | 96 | +8.8% |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yes | 83 | +5.4% |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Yes | 0 | — |
Showing the latest 300.
Shortthe stock·LongKOSPI 200 futures
| All | In-sample | Out-of-sample | Walk-forward | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | 321 | 47 | 274 | 179 |
| Profitable | 64.2% | 55.3% | 65.7% | 64.2% |
| Avg net | +5.5% | −5.9% | +7.4% | +7.2% |
| Median | +7.8% | +1.9% | +9.0% | +8.7% |
| Worst trade | −158.5% | −64.0% | −158.5% | −158.5% |
| Worst drop (% of book) | −8.4% | −7.1% | −6.9% | −343.1% |
| Sharpe | 1.65 | -0.98 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
ShortFingerLongKOSPI 200 futures
Signal Oct 27, 2026 · View filing ↗
At ₩1억 a trade. Setup out-of-sample average +7.4%, hit rate 64.2%, 321 trades.
| Stock | Against | Entry | Exit | Gross | Costs | Net | Fill days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSecern AI | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 26, 2026 | +4.8% | 3.4% | +1.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| SLincsolution | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 20, 2026 | +13.8% | 4.0% | +9.9% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| SAribiolab | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 19, 2026 | −15.8% | 3.4% | −19.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| SBiobijou | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 15, 2026 | −29.8% | 3.0% | −32.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | −23.4% | 4.1% | −27.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 7, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | −14.8% | 3.7% | −18.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 4, 2026 | Oct 7, 2026 | +6.4% | 3.8% | +2.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 3, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | −61.2% | 3.2% | −64.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 3, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | −61.2% | 3.2% | −64.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 28, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | +8.7% | 2.3% | +6.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 27, 2026 | Sep 28, 2026 | −5.2% | 2.1% | −7.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | +19.9% | 1.3% | +18.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | +19.9% | 1.3% | +18.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | +19.9% | 1.3% | +18.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | +14.3% | 4.0% | +10.4% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | −26.5% | 4.6% | −31.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | +19.9% | 1.3% | +18.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | +14.3% | 4.0% | +10.4% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 24, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | −0.9% | 6.2% | −7.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 20, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | +9.4% | 4.4% | +5.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 18, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | +2.0% | 3.0% | −1.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 14, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | −15.4% | 3.1% | −18.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 7, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | +1.6% | 6.0% | −4.5% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 7, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | +18.1% | 1.8% | +16.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | +13.0% | 1.5% | +11.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | +10.5% | 1.6% | +8.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | −4.3% | 0.9% | −5.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | +1.1% | 3.0% | −2.0% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | +11.2% | 2.5% | +8.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | +26.6% | 4.4% | +22.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 24, 2026 | Aug 24, 2026 | +16.3% | 3.8% | +12.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | −10.6% | 2.8% | −13.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | −1.6% | 2.4% | −4.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | −4.9% | 2.3% | −7.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 24, 2026 | −8.1% | 3.2% | −11.2% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | +26.8% | 3.9% | +22.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 15, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | +0.1% | 4.1% | −4.0% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 14, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | −14.6% | 3.7% | −18.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 11, 2026 | −1.2% | 1.4% | −2.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 10, 2026 | Aug 11, 2026 | −10.0% | 4.0% | −14.1% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 9, 2026 | Aug 7, 2026 | −7.5% | 2.6% | −10.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 9, 2026 | Aug 7, 2026 | +26.6% | 5.3% | +21.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | −10.7% | 1.9% | −12.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | +13.7% | 0.9% | +12.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | −10.0% | 2.7% | −12.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | −36.9% | 2.3% | −39.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | −36.9% | 2.3% | −39.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | −10.5% | 3.5% | −14.0% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | −20.1% | 3.0% | −23.1% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | −20.1% | 3.0% | −23.1% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 23, 2026 | Jul 22, 2026 | +9.6% | 1.5% | +8.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | −18.2% | 3.5% | −21.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 19, 2026 | Jul 20, 2026 | −5.4% | 4.2% | −9.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 18, 2026 | Jul 16, 2026 | −11.5% | 2.6% | −14.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 16, 2026 | Jul 14, 2026 | +7.9% | 2.1% | +5.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 16, 2026 | Jul 14, 2026 | +10.1% | 1.3% | +8.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | −7.9% | 3.4% | −11.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 12, 2026 | Jul 10, 2026 | +6.4% | 3.4% | +3.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 12, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | +12.6% | 2.8% | +9.8% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 11, 2026 | Jul 9, 2026 | −4.0% | 1.0% | −5.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 10, 2026 | Jul 8, 2026 | +14.3% | 0.7% | +13.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 4, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | +21.3% | 2.1% | +19.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | +18.2% | 2.8% | +15.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 28, 2026 | Jun 26, 2026 | +41.5% | 5.8% | +35.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 26, 2026 | Jun 24, 2026 | +40.9% | 1.3% | +39.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 26, 2026 | Jun 24, 2026 | +30.5% | 1.5% | +29.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 21, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 | +41.8% | 4.5% | +37.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 20, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 | +57.0% | 2.0% | +55.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 18, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 | +52.0% | 1.3% | +50.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 18, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 | +46.7% | 2.6% | +44.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 14, 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 | +22.2% | 1.5% | +20.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 13, 2026 | Jun 12, 2026 | +13.2% | 3.6% | +9.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 13, 2026 | Jun 12, 2026 | +32.7% | 1.6% | +31.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 13, 2026 | Jun 12, 2026 | +13.2% | 3.6% | +9.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 13, 2026 | Jun 12, 2026 | −32.1% | 2.1% | −34.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 12, 2026 | Jun 11, 2026 | +47.0% | 2.9% | +44.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 12, 2026 | Jun 12, 2026 | +27.4% | 2.7% | +24.7% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 8, 2026 | Jun 9, 2026 | +38.4% | 2.4% | +36.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 8, 2026 | Jun 9, 2026 | +41.3% | 2.4% | +38.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 8, 2026 | Jun 9, 2026 | +41.3% | 2.4% | +38.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | May 4, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | +60.5% | 1.6% | +58.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 30, 2026 | Jun 2, 2026 | +85.3% | 1.5% | +83.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 29, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026 | +65.6% | 2.0% | +63.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 24, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | +62.6% | 2.6% | +60.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | −13.4% | 2.3% | −15.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | +48.8% | 1.7% | +47.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 20, 2026 | May 20, 2026 | +41.9% | 2.3% | +39.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 17, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | +42.1% | 3.2% | +39.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 15, 2026 | May 15, 2026 | +48.4% | 4.0% | +44.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 15, 2026 | May 15, 2026 | +35.2% | 2.7% | +32.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 13, 2026 | May 13, 2026 | +59.3% | 2.2% | +57.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 10, 2026 | May 12, 2026 | −14.3% | 4.2% | −18.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 9, 2026 | May 11, 2026 | +40.4% | 1.4% | +39.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | +17.4% | 1.5% | +16.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | +23.0% | 3.5% | +19.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | +23.7% | 0.9% | +22.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 6, 2026 | May 6, 2026 | +57.7% | 2.7% | +55.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 6, 2026 | May 6, 2026 | +44.2% | 7.4% | +36.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 3, 2026 | May 6, 2026 | +44.1% | 3.0% | +41.1% | 2 | Filing ↗ |
| S | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 3, 2026 | May 4, 2026 | +30.4% | 1.6% | +28.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
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