Loading…
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
— Warren Buffett, The New York Times, 2008
Loading…
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
— Warren Buffett, The New York Times, 2008
The NPS is the largest domestic investor; its buying is slow and steady.
Reports come days after the buying; the NPS also trims stakes to stay inside its limits.
The National Pension Service reports raising its stake by 0.5+ points → long vs the market for 20 trading days from the next day.
383 signals → 161 trades (3 left out by filters, 200 over the position limit, 19 still open, 0 too big to fill, 0 exited at delisting).
Shaded: out-of-sample, from Apr 27, 2025.
| Year | Trades | Profitable | Avg net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 20.0% | −5.3% |
| 2025 | 85 | 38.8% | −1.3% |
| 2026 | 71 | 33.8% | −5.1% |
Each half-year is traded only if the previous two years were positive.
| From | Traded | Trades | Avg net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2023 | No | 0 | — |
| Apr 27, 2024 | No | 0 | — |
| Oct 26, 2024 | No | 46 | +0.3% |
| Apr 26, 2025 | No | 44 | −3.5% |
| Oct 25, 2025 | No | 45 | −3.3% |
| Apr 25, 2026 | No | 26 | −8.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | No | 0 | — |
Nothing matches any setup today.
Longthe stock·ShortKOSPI 200 futures
| All | In-sample | Out-of-sample | Walk-forward | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | 161 | 46 | 115 | 0 |
| Profitable | 36.0% | 50.0% | 30.4% | — |
| Avg net | −3.1% | +0.3% | −4.5% | — |
| Median | −4.4% | −0.4% | −6.2% | — |
| Worst trade | −32.4% | −21.7% | −32.4% | — |
| Worst drop (% of book) | −10.3% | −1.3% | −10.3% | 0.0% |
| Sharpe | -1.93 | 0.28 | -2.50 | — |
| Stock | Against | Entry | Exit | Gross | Costs | Net | Fill days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHD Hyundai Heavy Industries | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 9, 2026 | Oct 13, 2026 | −5.9% | 0.5% | −6.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| LHS Hyosung Advanced Materials | KOSPI 200 futures | Sep 2, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | −14.6% | 1.3% | −15.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| LCelltrion | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | −1.6% | 0.4% | −2.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| LSK Telecom | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | −0.9% | 0.6% | −1.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | +22.6% | 1.9% | +20.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −1.8% | 1.3% | −3.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | +3.0% | 1.0% | +2.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −18.4% | 0.8% | −19.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −7.3% | 1.1% | −8.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −28.8% | 0.5% | −29.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | +4.7% | 0.7% | +4.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −5.2% | 0.8% | −6.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | +20.4% | 1.0% | +19.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | +1.5% | 0.9% | +0.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −18.1% | 0.7% | −18.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −5.4% | 0.6% | −6.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −24.5% | 0.8% | −25.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | +1.6% | 0.7% | +0.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −4.5% | 0.6% | −5.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −11.7% | 1.1% | −12.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −23.1% | 1.1% | −24.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −31.6% | 0.8% | −32.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −20.2% | 1.5% | −21.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | −3.4% | 1.8% | −5.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | −18.1% | 0.9% | −19.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | +5.1% | 0.6% | +4.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −13.3% | 0.9% | −14.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | +9.1% | 1.4% | +7.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | +14.7% | 1.4% | +13.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −16.6% | 0.9% | −17.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −17.1% | 0.7% | −17.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | +42.0% | 1.0% | +41.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −1.3% | 0.9% | −2.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −2.6% | 0.9% | −3.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −12.8% | 1.0% | −13.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −7.8% | 0.7% | −8.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −18.4% | 0.7% | −19.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −21.3% | 0.6% | −21.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −25.6% | 0.7% | −26.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −7.6% | 0.7% | −8.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −19.2% | 0.6% | −19.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | +4.7% | 1.3% | +3.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −24.0% | 0.6% | −24.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −2.8% | 0.7% | −3.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | −3.1% | 0.6% | −3.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Mar 11, 2026 | Apr 8, 2026 | −11.8% | 0.6% | −12.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Mar 4, 2026 | Apr 1, 2026 | +9.3% | 1.1% | +8.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Mar 4, 2026 | Apr 1, 2026 | −14.1% | 1.0% | −15.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Mar 4, 2026 | Apr 1, 2026 | +4.1% | 0.7% | +3.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Feb 3, 2026 | Mar 9, 2026 | −24.7% | 1.4% | −26.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Feb 3, 2026 | Mar 9, 2026 | +1.6% | 0.4% | +1.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −12.1% | 0.8% | −13.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −5.7% | 0.7% | −6.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +8.4% | 1.3% | +7.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −2.1% | 0.8% | −3.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +24.0% | 1.3% | +22.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +12.2% | 0.9% | +11.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −11.2% | 0.7% | −11.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +24.2% | 1.1% | +23.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −7.7% | 0.9% | −8.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −23.2% | 0.7% | −23.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +13.4% | 1.5% | +12.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −0.5% | 0.9% | −1.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +20.2% | 0.6% | +19.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +10.3% | 0.8% | +9.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −26.7% | 0.6% | −27.2% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +14.6% | 0.6% | +14.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +5.1% | 1.0% | +4.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −5.1% | 0.5% | −5.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | −2.4% | 0.6% | −3.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jan 5, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 | +10.7% | 0.7% | +10.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | +37.9% | 1.1% | +36.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −12.1% | 0.5% | −12.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | +13.5% | 0.7% | +12.7% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −20.7% | 0.9% | −21.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −15.7% | 1.1% | −16.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | +20.0% | 0.8% | +19.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −12.5% | 0.6% | −13.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −12.6% | 0.5% | −13.1% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −3.7% | 0.6% | −4.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −12.9% | 0.7% | −13.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −14.7% | 0.7% | −15.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −29.5% | 0.9% | −30.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −18.7% | 0.6% | −19.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −1.0% | 0.6% | −1.6% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | +34.1% | 0.6% | +33.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | +31.3% | 0.8% | +30.5% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −18.3% | 0.6% | −19.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −4.0% | 0.5% | −4.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | +51.5% | 0.6% | +50.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Oct 2, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 | −6.7% | 0.8% | −7.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Aug 4, 2025 | Sep 2, 2025 | −7.4% | 0.7% | −8.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | +6.2% | 0.9% | +5.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | −9.9% | 0.9% | −10.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | −3.9% | 0.5% | −4.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | +33.7% | 0.7% | +33.0% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | +1.3% | 0.5% | +0.8% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | −0.7% | 0.7% | −1.3% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | −13.0% | 0.9% | −13.9% | 1 | Filing ↗ |
| L | KOSPI 200 futures | Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 31, 2025 | −3.9% | 0.5% | −4.4% | 1 | Filing ↗ |