Korea Castiron Pipe IND: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩8,681 per Share

What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate moved from ₩3,486 to ₩8,681 per share in the base case, a rise of 149.0%. The bear case moved from ₩0 to ₩4,637 and the bull case from ₩9,949 to ₩16,212. The discount rate is unchanged at 7.5%, and the financial base is still trailing figures to H1 2026.

No filings, news or 5%+ holder changes are provided with this event, and there are no minor events to mention as background. The data does not say why the model output changed. The latest share price in the data is ₩6,500 (2026-10-20), against ₩6,480 in the previous report.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a low-debt company (borrowings of ₩5.6B against cash of ₩44.1B) with revenue falling from ₩510.2B in 2021 to ₩406.6B in 2025 and modest returns (ROE of 4.8% on a trailing basis). None of that has changed in the data: trailing revenue is ₩409.3B, operating margin is 3.7% and the dividend yield is 6.2%.

The revision is therefore not a change in the underlying picture. It does not show that growth has returned or that margins have improved. The open questions from the initiation, such as the serious accident filing and the amended annual report, remain unanswered in the data.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a base case of ₩8,681 per share, a bear case of ₩4,637 and a bull case of ₩16,212. The previous report had ₩3,486, ₩0 and ₩9,949. Against the ₩6,500 share price, the base case is now above the price, whereas before it was below. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target.

A move of this size with the same discount rate and the same stated data period suggests the result is very sensitive to inputs that are not visible here. The range is still wide, with the bull case about 3.5 times the bear case. Current multiples are unchanged: P/E of 8.7x, P/B of 0.4x and P/S of 0.4x.

Closing view

The evidence points to a change in the model output, not in the company. Fundamentals in the data are the same as three days earlier: low debt, a 6.2% dividend yield, shrinking revenue and modest returns. A swing from below the share price to above it in so short a time shows how fragile the estimate is, and it should be read with caution. The data does not explain the revision, so the earlier and the new estimates are both best viewed as illustrations of sensitivity to assumptions, not as conclusions about the company's worth.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩4,637

-27%

Base

₩8,681

+38%

Bull

₩16,212

+157%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• Amended: Annual report (Dec 2025)Aug 14, 2026
• Occurrence of Serious AccidentAug 6, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportJun 2, 2026
• Disclosure of Corporate Governance ReportJun 1, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportMay 26, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportMay 19, 2026
• Quarterly report (Mar 2026)May 15, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportMay 13, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportApr 28, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportApr 21, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportMar 31, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKorea Castiron Pipe IND: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩8,681 per Share
2. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Korea Castiron Pipe IND: Thin Margins, Low Debt and a Share Price Near Book Value