Ask Warren

JONBUR Research · Update note

JW Pharmaceutical · 001060 · Biotech & Pharma

JW Pharmaceutical: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩52,434 Base Case as Shares Slip to ₩23,900

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +28% (₩42,784 → ₩54,639 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our valuation model's base estimate for JW Pharmaceutical rose to ₩52,434 per share from ₩42,784, while the share price fell to ₩23,900. The change comes from the model inputs, not from a new company filing, so it adjusts the valuation picture but not the underlying business facts.

Written Oct 25, 2026 · Data as of Oct 23, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

XfWATGr/in@

What happened

The model estimate moved after an update to its inputs. The event feed shows a move of +28% from ₩42,784 to ₩54,639 per share on 2026-10-22. The current model output, as of 2026-10-23, shows a base estimate of ₩52,434, which is about 22.6% above the previous report's base of ₩42,784. The discount rate used is now 7.3%, down from 7.5%. The financial base is unchanged: trailing figures to H1 2026, with revenue of ₩820.9B, operating income of ₩114.4B and net income of ₩101.3B. No filings or news explain the change, and no new company event is attached to it.

The share price closed at ₩23,900 on 2026-10-23, down from ₩25,300 in the previous report. It is down 11.0% over one month and 1.0% over three months, and up 3.9% over one year. The 52-week range is ₩21,550 to ₩39,250.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described improving profitability, with trailing operating margin of 13.9%, ROE of 27.4% and free cash flow of ₩122.8B above net income. None of these figures has changed, so that part of the thesis stands as it was.

The open question was why the shares fell from their high. That is still unanswered. Foreign ownership has fallen further, to 7.7% from 8.9% sixty days ago, although 20-day foreign flows turned slightly positive at about ₩2.4B. Institutions were small net buyers at about ₩0.3B and retail investors were net sellers at about ₩2.6B. Recent filings include another amended fine notice (2026-10-08), but amounts and details are not in the data. The thesis neither strengthens nor weakens because of the model revision.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a base estimate of ₩52,434 per share, with a bear case of ₩31,798 and a bull case of ₩87,260, at a 7.3% discount rate. The previous report had ₩42,784 base, ₩24,644 bear and ₩73,297 bull at 7.5%. All three cases moved up, with the bear case rising by about 29.0%. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target.

At ₩23,900, the price is now below even the new bear case of ₩31,798, whereas before it was close to the old bear case. At that price the shares trade at 5.8x trailing earnings, 1.4x book value and 0.7x sales, with a dividend yield of 2.7%. Enterprise value is ₩582.4B. The wide range between bear and bull shows how sensitive the result is to assumptions, and a small change in the discount rate and inputs moved the base case materially.

Closing view

The higher model estimate widens the gap between the model's range and the share price, but it rests on revised inputs rather than on new information about the business. The operating results are unchanged and strong on a trailing basis, while the price weakness, falling foreign ownership and unexplained fine filings remain unresolved. The evidence supports saying the model is more favorable than a week ago, but it does not settle whether the market or the model is closer to the right view.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩31,798
+38%
Base
₩52,434
+127%
Bull
₩87,260
+278%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.3%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 25, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeJW Pharmaceutical: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩52,434 Base Case as Shares Slip to ₩23,900
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)JW Pharmaceutical: Higher Profits and Low Multiples, With a Share Price Well Below Its 52-Week High

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information