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Korea Airport Service · 005430 · Transport & Logistics

Korea Airport Service: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 24% to ₩210,219 Base Case, Still Above Share Price

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -24% (₩268,940 → ₩205,086 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for Korea Airport Service fell about 24% in the base case, from ₩268,940 to ₩210,219 per share, with no new company filing behind it. The estimate is still well above the ₩82,400 share price, but the bear case now sits near the price and the range remains very wide.

Written Oct 27, 2026 · Data as of Oct 26, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

The only material event is a change in the model output. The base-case estimate moved from ₩268,940 to ₩205,086 on 2026-10-22, and the current data pack shows ₩210,219 for the base case. No filings or other company events were provided to explain the change.

The model is still a 5-year discounted cash flow using trailing results to H1 2026, so the earnings inputs are unchanged: trailing revenue of ₩697.9B, operating income of ₩53.6B and net income of ₩45.9B. The discount rate was lowered from 7.5% to 7.3%, which on its own would normally raise the estimate. The data does not say what drove the cut, so we cannot attribute it. It may reflect changes to other model assumptions, such as cash flow projections. Free cash flow on the trailing basis is ₩16.5B, well below net income.

The share price closed at ₩82,400 on 2026-10-26, down from ₩88,000 at the time of the previous report. It is down 2.5% over one month and up 33.1% over one year. Recent news headlines concern Korea Airports Corporation, a different entity, and do not bear on this company.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report's thesis rested on an earnings recovery: operating income moving from a ₩0.9B loss in 2021 to ₩47.0B in 2025, a 7.7% trailing operating margin and 11.5% ROE, with low leverage. None of that has changed; the trailing figures are the same.

The previous report also flagged slowing revenue growth, flat net income and weaker cash conversion as reasons for caution about the model gap. The lower estimate is consistent with that caution, though the data does not show that these factors caused the cut. Business drivers and guidance are still not available.

Other indicators remain similar: foreign ownership is 13.6%, up from 11.9% sixty days ago, retail investors were net sellers over 20 days, and short balance is 0.1%.

What it changes for the valuation

The updated model estimate, based on the assumptions shown (5-year DCF, 7.3% rate, trailing results to H1 2026), is ₩210,219 per share in the base case, ₩90,944 in the bear case and ₩418,897 in the bull case. The previous report gave ₩268,940 base, ₩143,071 bear and ₩483,520 bull at a 7.5% rate.

The bear case fell the most, about 36.4%, and is now only about 10.4% above the ₩82,400 share price, compared with a bear case far above the price before. The base case is about 155% above the price. The range is still very wide, which shows how sensitive the result is to assumptions.

Current multiples are a P/E of 5.7, P/B of 0.6, P/S of 0.4 and EV/EBITDA of 2.2, with a dividend yield of 1.2%. Peer P/E ranges from 3.4 (Korea Line) to 14.9 (HMM) and P/B from 0.2 to 1.2. The model figures are estimates, not a price target or a buy or sell signal.

Closing view

The company's reported results are unchanged, but the model now gives a noticeably more cautious range. The base case still sits far above the share price, yet the bear case has moved close to it, so the gap is less one-sided than in the previous report. Because no filing explains the change and the data does not show what drove it, the revision is best read as sensitivity to assumptions rather than new information about the business. Business detail and guidance are still not available, so this note offers no recommendation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩90,944
+8%
Base
₩210,219
+150%
Bull
₩418,897
+399%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.3%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 27, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKorea Airport Service: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 24% to ₩210,219 Base Case, Still Above Share Price
  2. Oct 20, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Korea Airport Service: Profits Recovered Since 2022 and Shares Trade at Low Multiples, but Model Estimate Is Far Above Price

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information